While there is a significant concern about the availability and world prices of wheat, safflower oil, and corn commodities produced by Russia and Ukraine, Russia is also the largest global exporter of fertilizers and fertilizer ingredients such as potash, ammonia, urea, and natural gas for making nitrogen-based fertilizers. Belarus, Russia’s closest ally, is the leading producer of potash-based fertilizer, and combined, Russia and Belarus provide 42% of potash fertilizer globally. With the ongoing Ukraine-Russia crisis, Russia has now suspended its fertilizer exports, and additional sanctions against Russia and Belarus are further disrupting the movement of fertilizer supplies around the world. Already, prices of fertilizers have surged – tripling price.
The worry is that food-producing countries of sub-Saharan Africa, where almost half of their potassium chloride comes from Russia and Belarus, will struggle to meet major crop yields that rely on fertilizers. This could further exacerbate food deficits in some countries with significant food insecurity on the continent. Already, sub-Saharan Africa is 21% food insecure according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and with compromised food production, this could make matters worse for some populations and some countries this coming season and into next year. Hunger and food insecurity have already been rising on the continent due to the COVID19 pandemic and climate change with 46 million more hungry in 2020 compared to 2019.
While governments are scrambling to reduce their dependence on fertilizers imports coming from Russia and Belarus, it will be difficult to ensure fertilizer is available, affordable, and distributed to the most vulnerable farmers in the near term. One solution could be for development donors and investment banks to create a mechanism to provide emergency funds to countries within sub-Saharan Africa who need assistance, or perhaps a fund specific to fertilizer that involves contributions from industry and development agencies, through the Global Agriculture and Food Security Program. However, both could be too slow and bureaucratic to fill the immediate needs of farmers.
While food aid is not the most sustainable solution, putting in place safety nets is critical. Governments in food-deficit countries of sub-Saharan Africa must introduce and step-up social protection programs that provide cash and food to vulnerable households to cushion the short-term impacts of high food prices and to protect smallholder farmers from taking on the brunt of fertilizer costs. Donor countries should support agencies such as the UN World Food Programme to provide food assistance to countries that want and need support.
In the long-term, there is a solid argument for sub-Saharan Africa, and the world, in fact, to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels and chemical fertilizers. The problem is, organic fertilizer is not readily available to be distributed globally. While this will not solve immediate needs, governments should invest in research and development that examines the scaling up of organic and biofertilizers, increasing efficiency of chemical fertilizers (less drop per crop), and producing more nutritious, less environmentally intensive crops and animals in environmentally sustainable ways.
If history has taught us anything, the Ukraine-Russia crisis will not be the last one we see in the next decade. Protecting the most vulnerable and re-orienting the world’s agriculture system towards one that is producing a different food basket with less environmentally intensive inputs makes sense. Let’s start with Africa.