Food Bytes: May Edition

FOOD BYTES IS A (ALMOST) MONTHLY BLOG POST OF “NIBBLES” ON ALL THINGS CLIMATE change, FOOD systems, & NUTRITION SCIENCE, POLICY, AND CULTURE.

It’s been a while since I wrote a Food Bytes post. They take a lot out of me because so much comes across our desks via social media, traditional media, scientific papers, and reports. Sometimes, it is just too much to take in. Sifting through what may be worth highlighting can be a pretty random process, and developing a flow from one thing to another can often be challenging. Anyways, here it goes!

The most obvious place to start is with the war in Iran. What a costly and tragic mess the U.S. administration has made. Now, as many experts have described, the world may be facing a deepening food crisis due to fertilizer, feed, and food not moving through the Middle East, and lots of market speculation on fuel and food prices. If this conflict continues, the effects will be devastating for farmers around the world and the most food-insecure. Some peer-reviewed articles are already getting published that analyze and discuss the impacts on food security, such as here and here. Major media outlets are reporting on it too; here are two interesting reads from The Economist and The Financial Times. Bloomberg News is discussing how crude oil prices are affecting other oil products, particularly biofuels.

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Extreme heat impacts on agriculture, FAO and WMO report (2026)

This also comes at a time when there is (again) much discussion about how food is being used as a weapon of war. I was particularly intrigued by this article from the Council on Foreign Relations, which includes embedded videos from experts around the globe. Speaking of geopolitical impacts on food security, Marc Bellemare, Bernhard Dalheimer, and Weston Loughmiller have an informative working paper out on this timely topic. In the Eat This Podcast with Jeremy Cherfas, they argue that agricultural economists have not paid enough attention to what they call “neglecting security externalities.” I am sure this will kick up some conversations. To make matters worse, the just-released 2026 Global Report on Food Crises reports that 266 million people experienced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025 and Famine (IPC Phase 5) was confirmed in two countries/territories the same year – in parts of the Gaza Strip (Palestine) and the Sudan –a first since IPC reporting began. Now the world is closely watching South Sudan as well.

Things may not bode well for the many farmers who toil day in and day out to bring us the diverse foods traded around the world. The new FAO and WMO joint report, Extreme Heat and Agriculture, argues that extreme heat is driving massive losses in agricultural productivity. Already, maize and wheat yields have declined 7.5% and 6%, respectively, with 1 °C warming. They provide a clear framework of how this is happening across both direct and indirect pathways (see the figure to the right). And now, meteorologists are predicting a potentially strong El Niño (or as this author calls it, the fourth horseman of this foodpocalypse), which could leave some parts of the world hotter and drier.

On climate + food, some other reports and papers that may be worth a read:

• A paper in Nature Food shows that in order to sustain yields of wheat, maize, rice, and barley production under 1.5 °C (current and unattainable climate target) and 3 °C warming (business as usual) scenarios, the world will need 13% (25 Mha) and 47% (94 Mha) global irrigation expansion, respectively. Yowza. Yes, we should be worried, but the question is, why aren’t we?

• A review paper in Nature Reviews: Earth and Environment on the “Broad bidirectional effects of global food production on the environment” got some airtime. It is a nice summary, but nothing really new that the EAT-Lancet Commission and others have not extensively written about. And while they list a series of solutions, I always find them a bit vague…who, how, when, why, and for whom seem to be missing in these laundry lists of actions. Maybe I am just getting grumpy in my old age…

• This paper in PLOS Climate claims meat and dairy companies spend a lotta time greenwashing. Gee, what a shocker! In all seriousness, this stuff is just infuriating, and papers calling out this behavior are super important. Keep it up guys!

• On a more uplifting note, the World Resources Institute, in collaboration with the University of Maryland, reports that tropical primary forest loss decreased by 36% from 2024 to 2025, following a record-breaking year of extreme fires. Yay! Something positive in the world! Check out the tracking on the right, which shows we are back to where we were in 2023.

On diets + food security, we have some goodies that have been published in mainstream media and peer-reviewed. Here is a recap:

• I am a big fan of Kibrom Sibhatu. He and others just published a paper examining the impacts of development projects on dietary diversity and food security in 24 low and middle-income countries. What did they find? Not much changed for dietary diversity, but food security improved (almost 8%). Unfortunate, as all eyes are on the future of, and the impact of, the decades of investment in international development…

• The great Carlo Cafiero has spent decades at FAO, spearheading food security metrics such as the POU and the FIES. He is retiring soon (will the organization cease to exist thereafter?), and here are his insights, lessons, and reflections after many years spent toiling to measure food security. Worth a read.

• Several of us published a review paper in Science describing how global food systems, along with rising incomes, urbanization, and the growth of ultra-processed foods, have driven dietary shifts that harm human health, the environment, and equity. We synthesize evidence across seven intervention domains to steer dietary transitions toward outcomes that are healthier, more sustainable, and more equitable. Key levers are highlighted, including R&D and product innovation to make plant-forward, sustainable foods tastier and cheaper; affordability and access measures, such as redesigned food assistance and supply-chain policies that internalize health and environmental costs; and food-as-medicine programs that embed nutrition into healthcare. There are also regulatory approaches — including reformulation targets, labeling, marketing restrictions, and public procurement standards — that are essential complements to voluntary actions, because nudges aimed only at individuals or producers are often overwhelmed by institutional food-environment influences.

• The Atlantic put out a piece on how the “whole grain trend went wrong.” Did it ever go right?

• Speaking of stellar food, the NYT published an article on how omakase sushi has become so popular in cities like New York, to its detriment. I particularly liked this passage: “In classic omakase, a chef has leeway to improvise in the moment, modulate, maybe even figure out what kind of person you are. These days in New York, the experience is more often one-size-fits-all: a fixed series of courses — essentially, a tasting menu — ranging from a dozen to 20 or more, with accommodations only for allergies or a particularly querulous diner, and often not even then. At the highest-end spots, everyone sits down at the same time and is fed in the same order, as if at the most elegant of mess halls.” And this: “With each bite, I had the nagging sense I was being spoon-fed, like a finicky child who couldn’t possibly know what’s really good or keep an open mind. There was nothing funky or chewy that might demand a pause to wonder: What am I eating?” Every time I go to omakase, I feel like an overstuffed cow eating at a trough waiting for my owner to shovel out a few measly morsels.

• And just to rub some USDA-approved, low-sodium salt substitute into the festering wounds left behind by the latest release of the U.S. dietary guidelines (aka RFK Jr’s personal diet), welcome to the “crunchy” teens who serve as wellness influencers. Someone, please, just shoot me. Maybe you don’t even need to read the damn article. Just look at the photos/videos of these teens wolfing down red meat. I leave you with this quote, which just about says it all: “Ava Noe, a teenager based in the Boston area, has amassed more than 25,000 Instagram followers while criticizing ultra-processed foods and promoting colostrum supplements, mouth tape (WTF is this?), and beef tallow.” Yes, all you nutrition scientists out there, you are once again, totally irrelevant.

• But maybe we don’t need to worry about beef-eating teens or IV-drip-fed sushi. Or, better yet, maybe we don’t even need to eat food at all anymore, because everyone seems to be getting their hands on GLP-1 inhibitors and self-experimenting with doses, how long they stay on them, and which symptoms and ailments they target. Has food and the food system become, shall I say, immaterial? As Tears for Fears sang, it’s a mad world. God damn right.

AI is not going anywhere soon. Some are for, some are against. In this paper in Nature Food, the authors argue that its impacts “depend on how institutions choose to design the infrastructures, competences and incentives that surround it.” Not really sure what that means to be honest… IPES published a report entitled "Head in the Cloud" that raises concerns (naturally!) about AI technology and other high-tech innovations to digitize farming, which they argue are largely controlled by a handful of major tech and agribusiness firms, creating farmer dependency and high production costs. It is an interesting read on the perils of technology that need to be governed and balanced with people-centered policies.

Speaking of technology, this group argues that ultra-processed foods are driving the plethora of plastic in our global food systems. Can’t wait to see some data around this claim, but I am sure Joe Yates and others are building a strong case! I guess the next thing we need to wonder is, how the hell are we going to extract ourselves from all this plastic? Good thing Dustin Hoffman’s character in The Graduate, Benjamin Braddock, shrugged at the prospects of working in “PLASTICS.” There is hope!

Well, that’s it for this month, folks. I will leave you with this little ditty by one of my favs, Jessica Pratt, called Mountain’r Lower. Seems like a song that is giving the spring season a chance. See you in June!

Archive Appetizer: Achieving healthy, sustainable, and equitable diets

Several of us published a review paper in Science describing how global food systems, along with rising incomes, urbanization, and the growth of ultra-processed foods, have driven dietary shifts that harm human health, the environment, and equity. There is a common dietary pattern across rich and poor countries: inadequate consumption of vegetables, fruits, legumes, whole grains, and nuts, alongside excessive intake of animal-sourced foods, sugars, refined starches, sodium, and unhealthy fats. These shifts contribute to noncommunicable diseases, greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and unequal access to nutritious diets. Dietary behavior is shaped by a complex web of direct influences (taste, price, convenience, culture) and powerful, often hidden, midstream forces and actors — manufacturers, retailers, and restaurants — that determine what foods are available, affordable, and appealing.

The many midstream actors that shape consumer food choices and producer choices within food systems and key levers to facilitate transitions toward healthier and more sustainable and equitable diets (Yang et al 2026, Science)

Building on that diagnosis, we synthesize evidence across seven intervention domains to steer dietary transitions toward outcomes that are healthier, more sustainable, and more equitable. Key levers are highlighted, including R&D and product innovation to make plant-forward, sustainable foods tastier and cheaper; affordability and access measures, such as redesigned food assistance and supply-chain policies that internalize health and environmental costs; and food-as-medicine programs that embed nutrition into healthcare. There are also regulatory approaches — including reformulation targets, labeling, marketing restrictions, and public procurement standards — that are essential complements to voluntary actions, because nudges aimed only at individuals or producers are often overwhelmed by institutional food-environment influences.

Most importantly, we argue that lasting change requires coordinated, systemic strategies that align incentives across consumers, producers, and especially midstream actors. There is a need for better metrics and data systems to track progress and hold actors accountable, such as the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, as well as efforts to shift social norms and improve food literacy. Overall, combining multiple interventions across R&D, policy, procurement, assistance, regulation, and education to create food environments in which healthy, sustainable, and affordable choices are the easy, appealing default.

Sustainability impacts arise primarily from agricultural production in, for example, farms and ranches (orange), whereas health impacts result primarily from consumers’ dietary choices (red) but are also affected by agricultural production and food processing methods. Equity impacts (blue) occur throughout the food value chain. The midstream actors in the food value chain, indicated with dark blue icons, exert great influence on the decisions of the world’s primary producers (fisheries and farms) and consumers despite being one to two orders of magnitude smaller in number

Desire paths

Hi, my dear readers — I took a brief sabbatical from the Food Archive, a self-imposed intermission of sorts. I’m back now, fortified and oddly calm.

Recently, I gave a talk at CIMMYT titled “Catalysts of Change,” an attempt to reconcile the two halves of my professional life: career and research. Twenty-five years in, Joan Didion’s line is unnervingly accurate: “It is easier to see the beginnings of things and harder to see the ends.” When I scan the span of my career, three kinds of moments stand out: meaningful, amplifying, and validating.

Let us begin, as all good narratives do, with the meaningful.

• Being mentored by extraordinary people (one is lucky if you can count your mentors on two hands).

• Feeling dispirited by less-than-extraordinary ones (a useful education in what not to be).

• Experiencing Africa for the first time — Uganda in particular — which reconfigured how I thought about place, food, and belonging.

• Collaborating with mothers and farmers, whose practical brilliance disciplines every grand theory.

• Teaching and learning from students and watching them choose food as a vocation, which is to me the closest thing to witnessing a small miracle.

Now to the amplifying moments.

• Early in my career, I had an opportunity to work with Jeff Sachs when he was Director of Columbia’s Earth Institute. Controversial? Yes. Generous with introductions? Also yes. His networks opened doors into international development and nutrition work across continents. I will be forever grateful — it was my entree into sustainable development.

• I also spent time “in the field” — in rural corners of sub‑Saharan Africa and in parts of East and Southeast Asia — working alongside farmers, women, and mothers. Those experiences did not merely influence me; they remade me and how I interact with the world.

• Leading the High-Level Panel of Experts on Food Systems and Nutrition report bestowed a certain institutional gravitas. It pulled my food systems work into higher political airspace and amplified its reach — like strapping a megaphone to a research agenda.

And finally, the validating moments.

• My first Science paper, published in 2008. One can be jaded about journals, particularly those that are impossible to get into, but this felt like a clean victory: no favors, no strings. Small triumph, enormous pat on the back.

• The Carasso Prize in 2012 for sustainable diets. Technically, it was my first formal prize (discounting my earlier triumph: winning a raffle to see Madonna at the Paramount in Seattle in 1985, an event at which the Beastie Boys opened and were, inexplicably, booed offstage). The Carasso Prize validated long, patient, unpopular work at the time linking biodiversity to nutrition.

• More recently, my election to the National Academy of Sciences in 2024. I was thrilled, gobsmacked, and acutely aware that the word “banger” is not illegible when describing one’s own good news. It felt very good.

Students have been on my mind a lot lately, as I am teaching two graduate classes here at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins' Bologna campus, and they are graduating. I am fortunate in that my students are whipsmart, inspiring, and unfailingly hopeful in a world reasonably short on hope. I like to share advice that was given to me, particularly in these hard times, with the current job uncertainty and overall world chaos. Here is what I tell them, in no particular order (and this applies across the professional life span, I am still heeding some of this advice myself):

• Know when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em. For any Kenny Rogers fans out there, this one is for ya’ll. Know when to walk away and definitely know when to run. This song is an analogy to poker, but it applies to life. Know when to throw in the towel. If in doubt, consult a friend whose life choices you respect.

• Be willing to pivot. Change is a risk that often repays itself. Terrifying? Sometimes. Regrettable? Rarely. Regret is a wasted emotion, and when it comes down to it, you’ve got nothing to lose by pivoting. New doors open.

• Learn from both good and bad bosses. If you’ve had exceptional mentors, catalog their practices. If you’ve had toxic ones, take notes, and let that guide your future conduct. The worst managers are, inconveniently, instructive.

• Say no. Repeatedly, if needed. My earlier inability to do so in my career produced an abundance of labor and a paucity of pleasure. Work saturates; quality evaporates.

• Prioritize quality over quantity. Resist the productivity fetish. It is better to produce one exquisitely and beautifully useful thing than a dozen forgettable ones.

• Only work with cool people and surround yourself with excellence. Life is too short to work with assholes. For realzzz. If someone doesn’t treat you well, or they are cranky, or just downright unpleasant, don’t shuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic, praying for a miracle. Get on the lifeboat. And when you do have the pleasure of choosing who to work with, choose greatness. That comes in many shapes, varieties, and colors, but you know when someone is good at their discipline or skill. Work with them, especially if they are nice.

• Treat people with kindness. We live in a moment when it is easier, even encouraged, to be cruel; be the opposite. It will pay dividends you cannot yet imagine.

• Take the desire paths. I borrowed this from Melissa Kirsch’s recent New York Times piece about finding a way out of snowy sidewalks. A desire path is the trodden shortcut that tells you the official route isn’t serving its purpose. It’s not just the road less traveled; it’s the road that should exist but hasn’t yet been designed. When you add the word “desire” before path, it takes on a new urgency. If the established maps are inadequate, draw your own.

Archive Appetizer: Bridging Science and Food Policy

In our latest paper published in the Advances in Nutrition, we explore the complex challenge of translating scientific evidence into practical policies and practices at the intersection of climate, food, and health.

We present a conceptual framework that underscores the interconnectedness of these domains and propose five core principles essential for effective translation: (1) integration of diverse disciplinary evidence; (2) early and sustained collaboration with policymakers and impacted communities; (3) context-specific application of evidence; (4) systematic identification of tradeoffs and conflicts of interest; and (5) strategic communication to align knowledge with action. These principles serve as a guide for researchers and practitioners aiming to develop resilient, equitable, and sustainable food systems informed by scientific evidence.

The complex and dynamic food system

To illustrate these principles, we analyze five case studies that demonstrate successful applications within different contexts. We highlight the California school food policy case, which successfully eliminated sugar-sweetened beverages and energy-dense snacks, serving as a national model for addressing food system inequities and environmental impacts. The Voluntary Guidelines on Food Systems and Nutrition represent a global collaborative effort that responds to local and national complexities, showcasing the need for stakeholder alignment in policy formulation. Additionally, we examine the State of Washington's initiative to establish metrics for assessing food system progress, which showcases effective collaboration between academia and government, while the dietary carbon footprint case emphasizes the role of individual dietary choices in influencing policy.

Our analysis also includes a New York City initiative, which integrates environmental sustainability into food procurement standards. This case demonstrates the importance of collaboration across different governmental administrations and public health departments. Together, these examples not only highlight the practical application of our proposed principles but also underline the importance of adaptive governance and innovative approaches in advancing food systems that are responsive to health and environmental challenges.

Overall, we advocate for a shift in how scientific translation is approached, encouraging a transdisciplinary approach to research that emphasizes collaborative effort, adaptability, and the recognition of various contextual factors that impact policy effectiveness at multiple scales.

I'm just sittin' here watchin' the wheels go round and round

Trigger warning: This blog has nothing to do about food! Ironically, last month I posted a blog about hued grief—reflecting on what has been lost in the past year in the U.S. What I didn’t mention is that I have been grappling with a personal grief of my own: the passing of my mom. As my Rector at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Europe wisely noted, “I know from experience that such events always find us somehow unprepared, even though they are in the order of things.” Well said. Losing a parent is an utterly heartbreaking experience. Interestingly, it’s a journey that most people undergo, so this feeling is not unique to me.

As one navigates these kinds of losses, it fosters profound reflection on where to go from here, especially when you no longer have that relentless cheerleader in your corner. What I’ve come to realize over the past year resonates deeply with me: embrace every sandwich, live life on your own terms, make bold moves (thank you, Ani DiFranco, for the inspiration), and find a way to kick around in the wreck. It’s essential to be okay with grief, to be okay with anger, and to give yourself permission to heal. LIVE YOUR LIFE ON YOUR TERMS. We all know this, yet it has taken me 54 years to fully grasp what it truly means.

One of my dearest friends and hermano, Mario Herrero, asked me the other day, “What are your plans?” It’s a perfectly reasonable question now that I’ve moved to a new country, city, and job. I had no answer for him; my response was simply, “I don’t know.” And he said, that’s okay.

Last year, one of my goals was to practice the art of NIKSEN. This Dutch term literally means “to do nothing,” but it isn’t the same as boredom or laziness. Niksen invites you to break free from the daily grind of work, family demands, and social pressures. It’s about destressing and simply stopping. It involves intentionally doing nothing without purpose or deadline: gazing out the window, taking in the scenery, and allowing your mind to wander. As John Lennon sang, “I’m just sittin’ here watching the wheels go round and round.” Yup.

Edward Hopper. Morning Sun

I’m not saying I’m checking out of the world. Instead, I intend to engage more thoughtfully. I recently wrote about handing over batons to the next generation (more beef, less bear). I made my mom proud a long time ago, and one of her enduring wishes was simply for me to be happy, a sentiment I hope for all of you, my dear readers. Find joy in the everyday. It can be challenging as the world seems to be unraveling, but remember: there are only a handful of people who want to watch the world burn. The majority of humanity cares deeply about our world, our future, and our collective progress. We face many hurdles, but history teaches us that we can overcome them.

Philosopher Martha Nussbaum, in her book The Monarchy of Fear, argues that fear is a primal, narcissistic emotion currently dominating American political life. It fosters anger, envy, and disgust, all of which threaten democratic values. While fear may be the "first prescribed emotion," it is not our destiny. We have the power to dismantle the "monarchy of fear" by choosing to build a society rooted in shared humanity and justice. Moreover, if you observe the ebbs and flows of the world, you’ll see that it is indeed a better place. We experience setbacks, but progress is being made.

Relish in that thought and remember it. Find what matters to YOU and fight like hell to keep it close to your heart. Because ultimately, it all comes to an end for each of us, and what truly matters is that you lived your best life on YOUR terms—not the terms set out for you by others.

The Journey of Hued Grief

2025 has finally come to a close, and what a year it has been. For many, the last 365 days (well, + the beginnings of 2026…) have felt like an endless hellscape of despair, marked by one shocking and unfathomable doomsday-like event after another. At the heart of this turmoil has been, of course, the current U.S. president, whose actions seem designed to sow chaos, disrupt democracy, and seek no-holds-barred retribution and dominance for his own personal gain. The cuffs and guardrails are nowhere to be found. However, I recognize that not everyone experienced this past year in the same way. Some found themselves thriving in the midst of the cultural upheaval, relishing the debates and discussions that accompanied each new development.

Over the past year, I've held back from discussing the unfolding chaos, but now that I’m leaving the U.S., I feel ready to step back and look at the broader picture. So much has already been said about how we arrived at this moment—the current state of U.S. politics and its “leaders.” The saga continues, marked by the dismantling of long-standing institutions designed to maintain checks and balances. Every day, we witness blatant violations of civil and human rights. The erosion of public health threatens not only our nation but global stability as well, compounded by geopolitical bullying and the silencing of dissenting voices. The cycle of doom seems endless. I suspect the repercussions of this turmoil will extend far beyond the U.S., affecting those who have relied on America as a dependable partner and participant in world order and sustainable development.

Egon Schiele

What’s particularly frightening is how quickly we/they have normalized this chaos. In the initial days, shock and anger were the dominant responses; now, it feels like a constant barrage, leaving many desperate for relief. Some people say, "Let’s wait and see what 2028 brings," while others choose to focus solely on themselves. A few optimistically assert that "progress always finds a way." Personally, I’m skeptical about these coping strategies, partly because we’ve never encountered such unprecedented turmoil before—certainly, the injustices of the Nixon era seem just downright mild by comparison. The outlook for positive change appears, frankly, grim.

For those of us in science and academia, the turmoil has shaken our foundations. What we once considered an untouchable sector has been profoundly affected. The reaction from esteemed institutions, including Columbia University—where I worked up until a few days ago—has been particularly disheartening. When push came to shove, Columbia capitulated to governmental pressure, effectively paying a ransom and making concessions. It was astonishing to witness a private university fold so easily, and honestly, it felt shameful.

Leaving the U.S. and Columbia became less daunting as 2025 marched on. As Aldo Leopold wisely noted in A Sand County Almanac, “One must make a shift with things as they are.” My move to Italy and resignation from Columbia represent my shift. Some might label me a flighter rather than a fighter, and they may be right. Nevertheless, the decision to leave the U.S. was straightforward; the logistics and emotional hurdles were far more challenging. Who walks away from a tenured professorship at an Ivy League university? Ego complicates the choice, but sometimes you have to say, “What the fuck,” as Miles said in Risky Business (the 80s is my jam long before the Duffer Bros).

Despite the changes, I still hold my tenured position as a full professor, now based at Johns Hopkins in Bologna, Italy. I feel incredibly fortunate—an awareness I don’t take lightly. Will I continue to be impacted by the events in the U.S.? Absolutely; no one is immune. Am I concerned that the rise of populism and conservatism is spreading across Europe, South America, and beyond? You bet I am.

We revisited Casablanca the other night—a fitting watch for our move. Most of you know the setup: Humphrey Bogart is a cynical bar owner who has to choose between an old flame and the greater good. It’s a movie about people "waiting" for papers in Casablanca as an outpost to flee war-torn Europe for the American dream. There’s a certain irony in watching it now; as the world comes full circle, we find ourselves being the ones packing our bags for the other side.

Reflecting on the past year, I find it surreal and inexplicably bizarre—much like our collective experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic. It has been challenging to fully grasp the events unfolding around us and their long-lasting implications. To cope and come to grips with the pandemic, my partner and I (also known as the Sound Furies) wrote a song called "Hued Grief" (an ode to Egon Schiele, who died of Spanish influenza). Like with the COVID pandemic and its aftermath, I am grieving. Grieving for the America that we all let slip away a long time ago — 50 years or more in the making. Hued grief represents the complex spectrum of emotions encountered during the grieving process, from dark despair to colorful and light transformative healing when we finally emerge from that darkness. The question is, when will we emerge? Maybe 2026 is the year. Maybe.

As I look ahead to 2026, my primary goal isn’t just to focus inward but to sustain hope. We need to aim higher, together. We need big, bold systemic changes, new leaders, and regulation for those who continue not have the best interests of people, the planet, flora, and fauna in mind. While these may be lofty, wishlist dreams, one can hope. In Rebecca Solnit’s book, Hope in the Dark, she explores the complex nature of hope and the often unseen ways that change occurs. She discusses how victories can be overlooked while failures are usually more prominent in our consciousness. Moreover, she suggests that hope is not simply an optimistic belief that everything will turn out well, but rather an active engagement with the possibilities of change and a recognition of our agency in shaping the future. She emphasizes the importance of our collective history and memories in navigating toward that future.

She notes (and I apologize if I’m not getting it exactly right—my copy of her book is currently in a moving box!): “Hope is not the belief that everything was, is, and will be fine. It is about the possibilities, and the basis for action. It is about navigating toward the future.”

Can’t say it any better than that. The journey continues…

Archive Appetizer: Nutrition-sensitive climate risk across food production systems

In 2025, we published a paper titled "Nutrition-Sensitive Climate Risks Across Food Production Systems" led by Michelle Tigchelaar. It presents an important analysis linking food security, micronutrient deficiency, and climate change. The objective of the paper was to assess nutrition-related climate risks across various food production systems. This is critical as both malnutrition and climate change pose significant threats to public health and food security, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where deficiencies are prevalent. We focused on five key micronutrients: calcium, folate, iron, vitamin A, and vitamin B12, selected for their vital roles in human health and the high rates of deficiencies associated with their lack.

We used data from the Global Nutrient Database. We categorized food items into six groups: aquatic products, fruits and vegetables, legumes and nuts, cereals and tubers, livestock products, and other crops. We then analyzed the availability of these micronutrients. We linked this supply data to various climate hazards using an integrated approach that considers the impacts of climate change on food systems.

The major findings highlight significant regional variations in climate risks associated with nutrient availability, with notable hazards for vitamin B12 and calcium predominantly found in animal-source foods. By 2041–2060, most countries will face medium or high climate risk to at least one critical micronutrient (calcium, folate, iron, vitamin A, B12).

This figure hows how often each nutrient’s domestic production will face extreme climate 2041-2060. For example, vitamin B12 and calcium face high climate risk due to heavy reliance on animal-source foods. Globally, 75% of calcium, 30% of folate, 39% of iron, 68% of vitamin A, 79% of vitamin B12, and 54% of energy production is projected to face climate extremes by the middle of the century.

Moreover, the analysis reveals that regions such as the Mediterranean and Central America are particularly vulnerable to high climate risks across all studied micronutrients, underscoring the urgent need for tailored resilience strategies to combat rising malnutrition amid the ongoing climate crisis. Countries like India, Nigeria, Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar, and Guatemala are projected to face high domestic climate risk across multiple micronutrients. Diverse Production Systems at Risk: Not just cereals, but livestock, aquatic systems, fruits & vegetables, and legumes & nuts are all vulnerable—particularly in tropical and low-income regions.

Why is the research important?

• It goes beyond staples: Most climate-food modeling studies focus on crops like wheat or rice. This one looks at nutrients that actually matter for health — like iron and vitamin A — and includes diverse food groups, including fish and vegetables.

• It links climate change directly to human nutrition, not just yields or calories.

• It recognizes that countries differ in their vulnerabilities and offers tools and strategies tailored to different kinds of risk profiles.

• It provides a new framework for integrating food, nutrition, and climate policy. Countries can use this to prioritize where to invest — whether in farming, aquaculture, trade policy, or nutrition programs.

• It shows that climate change threatens global nutrition goals, not just in fragile states. Even high-income countries could be affected if their food systems are too narrow or reliant on specific sectors.

What are the major calls for action?

1. Develop national commitments to nutrition in National FS Pathways, Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans.

2. Support diversified, climate-resilient food production.

3. Build food and nutrition security into market systems.

4. Expand safety nets and food environment policies to protect the most vulnerable.

I presented this work at the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition back in April 2025. Here is the slide deck. Enjoy!

The Archive Appetizer: Integrating Climate Services for Nutrition Action

Recently, my team published a review exploring the intricate relationship among climate change, food security, and nutrition. Our study is rooted in the understanding that climate change significantly affects nutritional outcomes, particularly among vulnerable populations. We conducted a scoping review to identify and synthesize country-level programs that effectively integrate climate services into health systems and nutrition interventions. By doing so, we aimed to highlight the diverse strategies employed across settings, focusing on both direct and indirect interventions related to health and nutrition, while emphasizing the need for aligned actions across sectors.

Our findings revealed 67 country-level programs that demonstrate innovative approaches to addressing the challenges posed by climate extremes, such as floods and droughts. We categorized these interventions using a framework that considers direct health-care strategies and various other sectoral strategies that affect nutrition.

Climate information and national nutrition planning and response conceptual framework (Carducci et al 2025)

Of these 67 programs, 42 were single-component, while 25 were multi-component, showcasing a variety of approaches to address the interconnectedness of climate change, nutrition, and health. For example, several initiatives specifically targeting women and children were noted, although many programs were more generalized, addressing broader populations affected by climate-related hazards.

Number of programs, by intervention type and component (Carducci et al 2025)

Among the specific programs mentioned, strategies varied widely across regions. In Bangladesh, for instance, multi-hazard climate information services were implemented to prepare for floods and droughts, while in Uganda, the Global Flood Awareness System was used to prevent disease, particularly diarrhea and malaria. Notably, Burundi's programs focused on anticipatory actions for flood management, incorporating both national and regional climate prediction efforts. Meanwhile, Zambia's initiatives used climate information to enhance malaria control efforts, underscoring the importance of integrating local and international resources to address public health challenges.

Interestingly, many initiatives were found to be more indirect, operating outside of traditional health interventions. This underscores the critical need for collaboration across sectors to prepare for and respond to climate-related challenges while improving nutritional outcomes for affected communities.

In conclusion, we advocate for strong partnerships between climate information service providers and stakeholders in the health and nutrition sectors. Our synthesis emphasizes that integrating climate services into nutrition policy and programming is not only beneficial but also necessary for developing resilient strategies to protect public health from the impacts of climate change. Through effective cooperation, knowledge sharing, and a focus on data-driven approaches, we can enhance our preparedness and response to the intertwined challenges of climate change and nutrition.

Navigating Climate and Nutrition Challenges

In the ongoing discourse surrounding climate change, the world needs a deeper examination of the multifaceted effects climate change and extreme weather events exert on global nutrition and food security. Climate change will likely intensify food insecurity, malnutrition, and the prevalence of noncommunicable diseases worldwide, as shifting climatic conditions disrupt agricultural production and water availability. It is also recognized that enduring effects can be expected as warming converges multiple climate stressors, thereby aggravating pre-existing vulnerabilities in food systems, particularly in low-income and resource-challenged regions.

We published a paper in the Annual Reviews of Nutrition this past year that highlights the intricate connections between extreme climate events and nutrition outcomes. Overall, as the review suggests, current studies on the impacts of climate change on nutrition remain limited, particularly regarding overlapping crises such as conflict and economic instability, which compound the effects of climate stressors.

One of the critical findings of the review is that extreme weather events, particularly droughts and floods, are strongly associated with various forms of malnutrition. For example, a systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that climate-related precipitation events, such as excessive rainfall and drought, are positively correlated with malnutrition. However, the nature of these effects varies by location, age, gender, and timing. The analysis suggested that drought conditions are significantly associated with increased rates of childhood wasting—a condition in which children are acutely malnourished and exhibit a low weight-for-height ratio.

An analysis involving 580,000 observations of children across 53 countries further supports this assertion. By using a derived Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), researchers investigated how precipitation anomalies may be associated with increased malnutrition among children. This study emphasizes the critical impact of climate variability on the nutritional status of vulnerable populations, particularly children under 5 years of age. However, the findings regarding underweight prevalence were less conclusive, primarily because various factors influence underweight and do not capture the full spectrum of malnutrition as comprehensively as stunting or wasting.

The review also emphasizes the need to explore the compounding risks posed by extreme weather events in a more nuanced manner. Extreme weather and climate events often occur in complex combinations—referred to as compounded events—that can exacerbate consequences not just for food security but also for population health. However, research remains limited in understanding the temporal and spatial nature of these compounding events and their specific impacts on nutrition outcomes.

Consequently, we assert that there is a pressing need for more sophisticated research methodologies, including longitudinal studies, to understand better the causal relationships and dynamic interactions between climate variability and nutrition. We should pay special attention to the need to employ advanced data analysis to assess the intricate patterns within these phenomena, thereby equipping policymakers with better insights for effective responses.

In summary, our understanding of how extreme climate events influence nutrition outcomes reveals both the severity of the challenges we face and the gaps in existing research. We must address the urgency of obtaining comprehensive data, refining analytical methods, and fostering interdisciplinary partnerships to understand better and respond to the dynamic relationship between climate variability and nutritional outcomes. Only through these concerted efforts can our global community hope to develop effective policies to build resilience against the inevitable shifts that climate change will bring to food systems and human health.

Holiday Eye Candy

As the holiday season approaches, cities around the world come alive with dazzling lights and festive decorations.

One of my personal favorites is the iconic Bergdorf Goodman windows in New York City. The talented visual team of artisans creates breathtaking, narrative-driven displays that not only showcase high art but also embody a cherished NYC tradition that celebrates fashion, fantasy, and the vibrant spirit of the city.

I’m captivated by how the reflections of the city’s buildings and bustling life intertwine with the window displays, creating a stunning juxtaposition of grit and whimsy.

Here are some photos I've taken over the years while living in Gotham, capturing the magic of this festive spectacle.