19 days of COVID cuisine: Cooking to combat cabin fever

My better-half, who does all the cooking in this casa and serves as the main hunter-gatherer-forager for all things food, wrote a post on his 5cense blog, but gave me the permits to post it here too. He goes into our food life in the times of COVID and how he gets by with a recent diagnosis of Ménières disease. He tries hard to practice what I preach in my professional life, ensuring we eat as sustainably as possible, and have zero food waste. Right now, these principles are harder for everyone, with the strained global food supply trying to keep up as the economy slows. For those already suffering from food insecurity and uncertain employment, the struggles are immense and we can’t even begin to comprehend the sacrifices and hardship. We feel so incredibly lucky to be able to put food on the table every night and are trying to support our local food system and community as best we can.

Please go and support your local farmers and CSAs (see who we support below), restaurants and food banks. They need us more than ever.

Virtual Sourcing
Don't know how y'all get your food, but this is problema #1 these days, 'specially for car-less folks like us that are used to the Italian way of doing things—buying fresh stuff every day for what you're gonna eat that night. By the time we went to the market a few weeks ago, most everything had been hoarded (btw, the TP shortage phenomena has an EZ answer—a Tushy bidet attachment... toilet paper is a filthy habit anyway). We have a Trader Joe's a block away, but seems to be a cesspool for Corona right now (+ no, not the beer). And when u go on Fresh Direct the time slots are always taken... so what u gotta do is wake up (or stay up til) 12:01am when they release time slots for the next day + then be patient thru 15 minutes of tumbling hourglasses or spinning wheels as everyone in the country is also refreshing their browsers over + over like you are. On the 2nd or 3rd night we got lucky + scored a rez for a week later.

Fresh Direct lets u modify your cart up until the night before your delivery so just put whatever in there to book a slot and then keep adding as u wait a week for your time to come up... of course lately they are out of most everything + even if u do manage to get some stuff in your cart, by the time they deliver ⅓ of your items are missing + the recommended replacements are ridiculous like in loo of raisins they suggest maraschino cherries, or low-sodium Goya black beans instead of the regular (which we've probably eaten more of then any other food item in el mundo (we brought cases of 'em to Rome, along w/ 5 or so kilos of Maseca)... spose u can just add your own salt + here's a tip: squeeze a lime into the can so u don't waste all them juices + gook stuck to the side of the can. And sure, u can boil your own, but we're lazy + DiY beans give us gas (tho pressure cookers help) + they were out of the dried ones too.

Whole Foods on the other hand has the opposite approach—u can reserve only 2 days in advance for delivery, but they release slots throughout the day, so if u keep ⌘-R'ing the screen u might score a delivery w/in a few hours. They don't let u update your cart tho + their bait + switch tactics are more extreme... yesterday we went to buy butter, Jasmine rice + paper towels but ended up w/ a few bottles of cava, organic blueberries + Engine-2 Rip's (only cereal we can find w/o added sugar or oils), but none of what we originally ordered (they don't tell u until after checkout that they are out of these things), tho guess we did score a few bags of Peet's Major Dickason's (no other coffee will do for us).

Daily Bread for a Fortnight
If ever we was gonna write a cookbook, it wouldn't be about singular recipes but the flow from 1 day to the next... about efficiency, variety, conservation of resources, adaptability + yes, 1-pot meals cuz we're fundamentally lazy. Rule #1 would be don't follow recipes. Just get creative w/ what u got, analyze the contents of your fridge in the order of when it will go bad + then figure out what u can concoct so nothing gets wasted... can't remember when the last time something in our fridge went bad. Most every meal ends up being a unique dish, tho there are a few general patterns that repeat. Rarely does a week go by that we don't have tacos, so we start w/ a batch of salsa. Choice of peppers might vary (+ sometimes we opt for green tomatillos) but usually, it's habaneros, cilantro, white onion, lime + roasted Roma tomatoes (5 makes enough to exactly fill our container)... the only problem is that there was no cilantro (a problem we are well used to, living in Italy where they regard cilantro as worse than old man b.o.) so we did the unspeakable + used basil + parsley. When we ordered habaneros from Fresh Direct last week we thought we were getting 6, but ends up we got 6 bags... so really like 40-50 habaneros. No problema, we roasted all of 'em w/ our stovetop roaster (w/ fan on high!) + then added a bit of olive oil + lime (to make it pasty) + put it in the freezer so whenever we need roasted habanero (which is always) we can just nuke it for 10 seconds then take a spoonful. While we were mucking up our food processor (Breville... highly recommended) figured we may as well whip up the jerk + pesto sauces (read on). Ideally, this prep day should coincide w/ the day u get your goods, which this time around conveniently fell on April 1.

April 1: Vongole—this is another dish in high rotation, if not weekly then every fortnight, being that clams are our bedder-½'s favorite food (she's got a tattoo as proof) + low on the food chain, low carbon footprint (unless u get them from New Zealand... which we must admit, them cockles are tasty). Our custom is to make this for whenever she comes back from a trip, which used to be often, but seeing as no one is traveling these days we make 'em just because. Ain't much to do w/ vongole (or linguine 'Congolese' as our iPhone calls it)... soak the clams 1st thing in cold salted water (our seafood monger in Rome used to tell us how much salt per liter but we forget) in the sink + apologize to them 1 x 1 for the trauma they endured being scooped from the sand + shipped thru whatever supply chain to your home (hopefully your seafood monger knows better not to seal the bag so they can breathe). Rub each 1 down + if they are slightly ajar they should clench close when u massage them otherwise they ain't no good. If u squeeze 'em a bit u can sorta tell.

If we had a baguette we would of made garlic bread to "fare la scarpetta con le vongole" (mop up the clam juices w/ the bottom of your shoe) but apparently everyone's hoarding baguettes (which at least makes more sense then guns + TP) so instead we just took regular sliced (whole grain sourdough) bread + smeared crushed garlic + olive oil (butter is also out of stock, so we're rationing the little that we have) + put it in the oven. Then put the water on to boil.

In another pot (a janky non-teflon 1 cuz it might get scratched up by the clams) put some chopped garlic, olive oil + white wine... we like to put sum sorta cherry tomatoes (ideally those nippled piennoli from the slopes of Mt Vesuvius) but alas, out of stock, so instead we chopped up some red peppers (sweet minis). At the same time u put the pasta in (linguini or spaghetti for vongole... nothing else will do) put the poor little clams in the pot w/ the lid on. Make sure to under-cook pasta, we just drain against the side of the sink to not have to wash a strainer then add lots of fresh chopped parsley, red pepper flakes, ground pepper, salt + a squeeze of lemon, then dump the clams (cook long enough for them to all open) + juices on top + hold onto the pot u used to steam the clams cuz u can use that for the discarded shells. We didn't take a photo of the vongole cuz we didn't know then we'd write this post + we're more into eating our food then taking pictures of it. We also had a salad (use them greens while their fresh) w/ avocado + red onion. We've been trying not to drink during the week, but hard to have vongole senza vino bianco.

April 2: Gnocchi Pesto—fresh basil should also be made into pesto as soon as possible... it doesn't mean u have to eat it that day, but at least make it. As we mentioned, we also made the salsa + jerk sauce at the same time to save on cleaning. Often humus gets worked into this routine, but not this time. Pesto is e-z p-z.. throw basil, pine nuts, garlic, olive oil + pecorino romano in the food processor + voilà. Most recipes probly call for parmigiano but our time in Rome has biased our buds. Sometimes we squeeze a squirt of lemon into the mix. ½ of the pesto we'll put in a jar (top off w/ a layer of olive oil so it stays green + unoxidized).

We chose gnocchi cuz we had pasta the night before + also cuz the last time we went to Trader Giotto's they were out of all the pastas except gnocchi. While the gnocchi were boiling (if u have gnocchi w/ tomato sauce u can cook them right in the sauce + save a pot) we sautéed a bit of shrimp + mustard greens (often we'll throw chick peas in for protein, but the shrimp suffice this time) then add the gnocchi + mix in the pesto last, after the heat is off. Again, w/ a salad + unfortunately sliced bread instead of a baguette to mop up the oily remnants. Pesto is hard to eat w/o vino rosso, but we can't drink red wine this time of year w/ our allergies + we ain't sposed to be drinking anyway during the week. We usually also have sparkling water but SodaStream is taking forever refilling our cannisters... so it's tap water straight up, w/ a squeeze of lemon (April is the month they chlorinate the water in DC (gotta keep them pipes clean living in the swamp) which smells gross but u can't really taste it). Again, we didn't take photos of the final product, tho here's the pesto sauce we haven't used yet, along w/ the salsa we haven't tapped into either.

April 3: Jerk Chicken—we haven't been talking much about what we eat the rest of the day.... if we have leftovers from the night before we skip breakfast + eat those for lunch. Or we eat a late breakfast + skip lunch, or just snack on whatever throughout the day. Lately we've been into smoothies + while we haven't resorted yet to frozen berries, we got some for the day when we can't get 'em fresh.

'Jerk' is 1 of those vague words that to us means whatever u find laying around, but usually entails roasted habaneros (which we already mentioned we have a frozen stash of) + green onions... those are the only 2 real requirements, + oh, spose allspice is must-have to be jerk. If we have pickles on hand (which we do) we'll pour some of the briney water into the mix, or capers w/ some of the juices they're soaking in,... soy sauce, ponzu, whatever salad dressing u might have, lime, vinegar, salt, pepper, spices, etc. Baste the chicken in this concoction overnight (we did all this the day before). Then all u got to do is fire up the grill + throw 'em on.

Actually, shuck the corn + put those on 1st cuz they take longer. Then put the meatier breasts + legs before the wings + smaller pieces... tho we couldn't get a whole chicken, all we could get was 2 legs + a package of wings (if we wanted organic, free range). We don't do chicken that often btw, maybe once a month. It's the only animal we eat that doesn't live in the ocean. We justify it cuz it's low on the food chain + comparatively resource-efficient, but fact is it's delicious. Roasted corn doesn't need anything, perhaps just a squeeze of lime. And again, a salad, while the greens last. Washed down w/ Pilsner Urquel. We got tired of waiting for SodaStream so canceled our order + put on a bandanna + braved the hardware store to exchange our cannisters. After dinner mixed sum gin into our limey soda water (it was Friday night after all)... nursing our Japanese gin to stretch it for as long as we can.

April 4: Tacos—we've eaten tacos probably more than any other dish in our lifetime, at least once if not twice a week. We had a bit of leftover chicken so grilled it up w/ sum mushrooms, green onions + a few types of peppers (dare we use the word fajitas?). We actually scored some tortillas (albeit small "street" style ones) otherwise we would of made our own. And whipped up a batch of guacamole... + the salsa, sour cream, jack cheese (sadly they were out jalapeño jack) + a bottle of pilsner.

April 5: Risotto—take the bones you've been collecting from the chicken, along w/ whatever else (we keep a pot in our fridge for scraps), the tips of onions, celery, etc. + add water to boil. The longer they simmer the better. This week we made risotto w/ the broth, but the last time we made vegetable bean soup + the time before that pozole.

While the broth simmers start chopping up stuff for the risotto... this time we put garlic, eggplant, shitake mushrooms, a few frozen shrimps, mustard greens (add last) + green chilies. Fortunately we have 10 kg of frozen roasted Hatch chilies we got last September... we still have about 5 kg left. Roast the garlic + briefly toast the risotto then start adding stuff. We just put the strainer right on top + pour the broth straight in. Set the risotto simmering, stirring often. Once the stuff in the strainer has cooled (spraying a bit of cold water thru helps) we like to get in there + wring all those juices out, squeezing the remnants to a pulp. Broth-making should correspond w/ the day before garbage day so these remnants don't stink up your kitchen or attract vermin. When it's near to done grate some pecorino in. We served it on a bed of arugula since we had some to use up.

April 6: black bean tostadas/tacos—we had a few leftover broken tortillas that we put in the oven to make tostadas + since we don't have any more tortillas we made our own from Maseca... again, plenty used to doing this since they don't have tortillas in Rome or Nairobi (not corn ones anyway). We still have salsa from a few days ago + grated some cheese + diced up some peppers, green onions, arugula, cilantro, sour cream, etc...

April 7: Penne Pesto w/ shrimp, mushrooms, peppers on a bed of arugula (using rest of pesto sauce made a few days ago).

April 8: Veggie-burgers /w fries + babaga-humus—scraping the bottom of the fridge so dipped into the freezer to dig out some Engine-2 Pinto-Habanero Burgers that we've been meaning to try since we like their cereals so much (all simple plant-based ingredients w/ no added oils or sugars). Grilled up some onions, mushrooms + peppers to put on the patties + also a slice of NY sharp cheddar cheese. Roasted some potatoes in the oven (w/paprika, rosemary, garlic, salt + o'bay). While we had the oven on, roasted an eggplant + mixed it w/ some humus (why not... humus + babaganoush have basically the same ingredients): chick peas, tahini, olive oil, lemon, fresh parsley, habanero paste, sesame seeds + the roasted eggplant). Celery + pickles. Washed down w/ a bottle of Cava since our bedder-½ got promoted to full professor (she was already tenured + endowed, but technically "assistant" prof before) so we were celebrating. The verdict on Engine-2 Pinto-Habanero "burgers"? Consistency was weird, soft + mushy + falling apart, but w/ all the fixings + mayo + mustard it's all tasty.

Oh yah, the cookies... those are the professor's doing. We don't bake... at least not baking that necessitates following a recipe.

Eating + drinking w/ Ménières
Didn't sleep so well + woke up w/ our head pounding/spinning, maybe on account of the cava + cookies. Last year we were diagnosed w/ Ménières disease + our doctor said no salt, alcohol, caffeine + basically every food item listed here that we love. But life's too short! Would rather be dizzy + lose hearing in 1 ear than eat unsalted beans. Especially since there's been no conclusive studies demonstrating that this even helps, it's all just anecdotal speculation. A few months ago we started to keep a food journal to see if we could identify any triggers, but barometric pressure, allergies + lack of sleep seem to have more of an influence than diet... tho salt, sugar + alcohol certainly doesn't help + eating a lot in 1 meal after fasting all day doesn't bode well for us either. In particular we've noticed we don't do so well w/ wine (especially red, but even whites now). We're okay w/ beer (as long as it's low alcohol %... not these crazy high-octane IPAs they make nowadays), in fact we sleep + feel even better if we have 1 or 2 beers. Really it's about moderation in everything, keeping fluid levels at an even keel, don't eat a bunch of salt 1 day + then no salt the next + don't binge on anything all at once, but eat consistently throughout the day. Our Ménières is probably acting up cuz it's allergy season (this time last year we were really hating life). Yesterday we went for a run (only cuz it rained all night) + when we got back our legs felt + looked like we got bit by 100s of mosquitoes all at once, in addition to sneezing attacks + itchy bloodshot eyes. So avoiding the outside world is something we should be doing anyway for the next month, regardless of COVID.

April 9: Shrimp Tacos w/ Guacamole—Re-up day... got our Fresh Direct delivery this morning... this as we learn that the Trader José's near our house closed cuz an employee got COVID, so now we'll be even harder pressed to get food in our hood. We made shrimp tacos cuz 2 of the avocados we're really soft so figured we may as well make guacamole + the shrimp weren't frozen so best to 'em sooner rather than later. Made another batch of fresh salsa for the week.

April 10: Mushroom Gorgonzola Stroganoff—we have no clue how a proper stroganoff is made, this is based more on the Hungarian Mushroom soup recipe we remember from Moosewood (back when we was a hippie child in the '80s we admit to using that cookbook). Sauté some mushrooms (a mix of cremini + the regular ones) + onions + garlic in white wine, olive oil + butter. We couldn't get sour cream so used Greek yogurt. Spice w/ salt + pepper + most importantly paprika + fresh parsley. Oh yah, and this time we sprinkled some crumbled gorgonzola in which gave it a nice zest.

April 11: Linguini Vongole—1 of the professor's students was going to Whole Foods w/ a car today + asked us if we wanted anything (spose this is the 2020 version of giving the teacher an apple) so we gave her a list of things including vongole, so repeated day 1's clam-fest only this time w/ linguini + we had little kumatos to throw in. Not only was this student kind enough to do our shopping but she souprized us w/ other goodies we didn't ask for such as burrata, so included that in our meal.

We were going to do a whole fortnight of food getting us thru lock-down, but seems the cycle is starting to repeat + we have friends in Naples asking to swap recipes, so we'll go ahead + post now... u get the idea, it's not about knocking your socks off w/ 1 meal, but sustaining yourself thru the week, month + also eating to sustain the planet. W/ the nearby Trader Joe's closed cuz of COVID it's getting harder to shop (supposedly the queue at the nearby Whole Food's is 2 blocks long). We're losing sleep staying or waking up at midnight to get a delivery rez on Fresh Direct only to find out they are all booked in advance + seems all food delivery services are overwhelmed. On the other hand, there is tons of food going to waste cuz the chain is severed from farmers that normally supply restaurants + business besides supermarkets, or the mom + pop specialty farms that supply farm-to-fork restaurants. We signed up for a local CSA (Earth N Eats) so we are getting a bunch of fresh stuff on Friday. There's also lots of otherwise thumb-twiddling restaurants getting involved in distributing (uncooked) food (at least in DC). So we're set for at least a few weeks, here's what our fridge looks like at the moment:

Next Week's Menu
As mentioned, we don't follow recipes or plan meals in advance (+ or even grocery lists) but we have a vague notion in the back of our head that gets inspired day off based on the status of food in our fridge in the order it will go bad (not a drop or leaf of any food item above will go to waste). But here's some other e-z to make meals that usually find their way into the mix:

  • Pozole—while the authentic version is complicated (+ involves pig feet) we have our own version that can be made in minutes. Ideally u do this w/ broth u made, but in a pinch u can use 1 of them boxes (+ veggie broth if you don't do chicken). Grill up onions + garlic, add roasted Hatch green chilies (we have them frozen, but u can get them canned, tho they're not nearly as good/spicy), oregano, a can of hominy, black beans + voilà. Mexicans garnish w/ cabbage, onions (white), pork, radish, lime + chili sauce... we modify this sometimes w/ whatever leafy green, green onions, grated cheese + chicken, if we have it.

  • Quiche—quiche is another great way to use things up, just grill up whatever u have on hand, add 4 eggs (2 per pie) + grated cheese... basically an omelet in a pie crust. We only make pie crusts if we have to (like in Italy where u can't buy them frozen) but what a pain in the ass when u can just buy 'em frozen. If u don't have a pie crust, u can always make breakfast for dinner... we often do a Mexican version of this w/ huevos rancheros + black beans + home fries.

  • Pizza—same thing we said about pie crusts applies to pizza dough... much easier to get frozen + thaw + roll it out out day of. U also need to an oven that can crank up to 450° if not 500°+ ... ours never seems to get hot enough to get a crispy crust (+ we never forked over the dough for a proper pizza stone but use a metal 1), but maybe also cuz we load it up w/ veggies (usually lots of mushrooms) + cheese, to try to make a meal of it. We also often pile arugula on to turn it in to a sort of pizza salad. Otherwise, if we want a proper pizza we leave that to the professionals (same could be said about sushi).

  • Cevicherashi—while we don't usually make sushi ourselves, we often do a Mexican/Peruvian hybrid that we already documented here. Or a Polynesian take on this is poisson cru (basically the same thing but w/ coconut milk).

  • TJ's Thai Lime + Chili Amondless Larb—it's easy to fall prey to the Asian stir-fry, face it, we all have + it's never the same as when u go to a good Thai or Chinese restaurant. Maybe 1 reason is that it usually requires liberal doses of fish sauce which stinks your house up to high hell. But the classic stir-fry is always a good way to use up those fresh veggies + Jasmine rice is a nice change from pasta. One secret we have (being that we consume mass quantities of those Trader Joe's Thai + Lime Almonds) is we re-use all those leftover spices (lemongrass, kaffir, etc.) once we've eaten the almonds + yes, u sorta have to plug your nose + use fish sauce, that's the dirty secret to Thai cooking. When we 1st got turned on to Thai food in the '80s in San Jose, we got the cook from our favorite restaurant drunk so she'd reveal her secrets + evidently cooking w/ vodka is also key. If we don't use shrimp, our stir-fry dishes often end up a bit larby, w/ lime, scallions, cilantro + ground chicken or turkey or crumbled tofu, tempeh or we've even tried this w/ beyond burger.

  • Casarecce Carciofi—we got some artichokes coming friday in our CSA so we'll likely make a variation of this, hopefully they'll have the stems on them cuz them's good eating. Basically we follow the recipe for carciofi ala Romana (steam w/ garlic, mint + lemon) + rather than waste those juices the artichokes were simmering in, we take the artichokes out, mash up the stems (hopefully they're soft enough) + garlic + then maybe add mushrooms or whatever else + put the pasta in there + add pecorino Romano to stretch your artichokes into a meal.

  • Anything Goes Mulligatawny—googling now this doesn't resemble the mulligatawny recipes we see on Inurnet, but it's usually what we call our goulashy vegetable soups. The inspiration goes back to 2 decades ago when we used to stand in line at the Soup Nazi in Hell's kitchen (before he sold out + franchised + had to drop the "Nazi") + it was pretty much just like in Seinfeld (except u stood in line outside, rain or shine), u had to know the drill or get scolded. And it was well-worth it. My favorite was his mulligatawny, which seemed more Persian than Indian. And we'll use a dollop of sour cream or yogurt instead of coconut milk (as we think did the Soup Nazi). Regular players in our mulligatawny include: lentils or chick peas and/or whatever beans, celery, carrots, squash or pumpkin, onions, potatoes or faro, etc. but really this all hinges on your broth. We might spice it w/ a bit of curry powder or rosemary + tarragon + usually there's habaneros involved or some other chilies.

Bon appétit! And wash those hands.

 

It is easy to see the beginnings of things, and harder to see the ends.

At least, that is what Joan Didion wrote in “Goodbye to All That.” She was referring to herself when she moved to New York City and unexpectedly stayed for a good long while. Maybe too long.

I have been thinking a lot about what she wrote, feeling the palpability of those words as we mark our 30th day in self-isolation amidst a global COVID-19 pandemic, without a clue to where we are within it. The end is indeed abstruse. Are we at the beginning of it? Are we in the middle? Or nearing the end? It is harder to see, know, or predict when this will all resolve, and no Jim Morrison, the end is not always near.

We saw COVID coming for a while now. We had early lessons of historical pandemics in which many of us mortal souls perished. The Plague (killing 200+ million), the Spanish Flu (killing 50+ million), and HIV/AIDS (killing 25+ million and still going on). The visual below shows the impact of these pandemics killing 25 to 35% of the total global population. We have also been warned over the last two decades that more and more zoonotic diseases — i.e. animal to human transmitted diseases — are coming and creeping into our food supply. Think avian and swine flu, SARS, and MERS.

Then there are other infectious diseases that are downright scary, but seem to be contained to certain regional epidemics. Think Ebola and Zika. These have never quite made the jump to be classified as a “pandemic” which is classified as a disease impacting every country in the world, yet.. Then there are the insidious, neglected and tropical diseases like river blindness, Leishmaniasis, and Guinea worm that impact people living in the poorest areas of the world. And Dengue and malaria continue to wreak their widespread havoc. The warnings were and are persistently there.

The beginning of COVID-19 was surreal, yet predictable to witness, much like watching the beginnings of Steven Soderberg’s movie Contagion (a virus that spread from China to the rest of the world via air travel, killing 25% of the global population, which stemmed from a bat to pig to human food system zoonotic transmission). Noticing events unfold mid-to-late December in China, as it quickly made its way through some Asian countries, and then slammed into Italy, were obvious signs that this virus moves fast and stealthy, and does not discriminate. And it was coming for everyone, leaving no one behind. Observing the way governments responded to tampering down the virus has been mixed, with the U.S. being way too slow to move and react, and with a “president” who not only doesn’t understand the science but doesn’t care to learn and listen to the experts (like the great Tony Fauci) who surround him reluctantly. Now, the country is reeling from the highest number of cases and deaths in the world.

We also had knowledge and evidence of how such a pandemic would unfold and how the food system is particularly vulnerable to being the source and breeder of these zoonotic type diseases. Now one might wonder if COVID-19 is truly a zoonotic disease. Its origins are being debated in the scientific literature. While there are some thoughts that the virus originated from a wet market in Wuhan, scientists are still unclear about its origin. Did it come from animal and if so, which one(s)? Did it really come from a seafood market or from food at all? There are many early assumptions that it came from snakes or pangolins. The science is leaning towards snakes not being the source. Viruses have a hell of a time jumping from warm-blooded to cold-blooded back to warm-blooded. And it is thought overall that COVID-19, like SARS, is a mammalian virus. There was one article in late January 2020 in the Journal of Medical Virology that though some of the genetic code of the COVID can be found in two snake varieties, but that has been discredited.

There is an interesting article in Nature that is trying to determine its origins. The starting point is the genome: 80% of the COVID-19 genome is shared with SARS and 96% with bat coronaviruses. They hypothesize that the origin of COVID-19 is either natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer (bat to pig or bat to pangolin) OR (ii) natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer (so human to human, i.e. SARS to COVID).

I am going to write more about zoonotic (also known as zoonoses) diseases for a new blog series myself and some stellar colleagues are curating on COVID-19 and nutrition. Still, for now, it is of the utmost importance for the global community to prevent these food-borne zoonotic diseases in the future. Scaling up a “One Health” approach is one way to prevent future pandemics.

Humans co-exist with animals - as companions for our overall wellbeing, as producers of food, and as a source of livelihoods. This interface between animals and humans and their shared environments can be a source of disease too. Those who work on One Health work at this interface to prevent zoonotic diseases from spreading by considering animal, human, and environmental connections.

But here we are, with each day running into another, wondering if tomorrow will be different or more of the same. For now, we are stuck in this endless cycle of a beginning. But maybe this is a new beginning - one of a new reality, a new way to see the world and our place in it, and a new appreciation of what we have and a profound sadness and empathy for those who have less or have suffered loss, in every shape and form. The question is, when the end is near, or even better yet, comes and COVID-19 is in the rearview mirror, what will we be as a human society then? Hopefully, one that is better informed, ready, and resilient for the next one.

The COVID-19 Crisis and Food Systems: Addressing threats, creating opportunities

Lawrence Haddad, Jess Fanzo, Steve Godfrey, Corinna Hawkes, Saul Morris, and Lynnette Neufeld

With the spread of COVID-19, we find ourselves plunged into a global health crisis. By most accounts, we are only at the early stages of the pandemic so it is going to reshape economy, society, and politics, probably permanently.

Pre-COVID-19 crisis, many families the world over already spent a lot of time and energy thinking about getting access to food. During the crisis, the most vulnerable face the rapid loss of their income - spent mainly on food - and this is an immediate threat that should be prioritized. For many others, simple access to shops has also become very worrying and needs swift attention. Even the wealthy are increasingly thinking about food access at this time.

But are governments, businesses and civil society thinking enough about food access and the wider food system?

How will the crisis shape the food system if we do nothing? And what can we do in the context of the crisis to get the food system in better shape to improve the consumption of nutritious foods for all, especially the most vulnerable?

We desperately need to focus on the operation of food systems at the moment because we know that the quality and quantity of the food we eat is the number one risk factor in the prevention of general mortality and morbidity. If we forget the food system right now, the COVID-19 health crisis will unwittingly use the food system as a catapult to have an even bigger impact on the global burden of disease. If we think and act to change the food system right now, we can reposition it to be more effective at delivering affordable nutritious food during the crisis, and perhaps even after the crisis.

What are the probable effects of COVID-19 (and the efforts to control it) on the food system which shapes our access to nutritious food?

It is difficult to say for sure, but in this table we share some thoughts on the potential impacts throughout the food system of COVID-19 (and the response to it), and some ways of mitigating the impacts. We do this for high- and low-income contexts, which may well exist within the same countries. Many of our suggested actions are responses to immediate needs, but many would have positive impacts well after the crisis is under control.

What are the main threats? We are of course worried about food prices, especially for more nutritious foods, which are already more expensive than staples and unaffordable for many people, especially those on low incomes who already spend much of their money on food. More food staples will be consumed as a result of price hikes, but likely also more, unhealthy, highly processed foods that are cheaper, have longer shelf lives and may provide comfort in tough times. In addition, increased food price volatility (due in part to hoarding and cross border impediments) generates uncertainty and makes it more difficult for food system actors to take all manner of decisions.

We are also deeply worried about negative income shocks on the most vulnerable, through the loss of livelihoods as the demand for certain services collapses and certain production systems are disrupted due to affected workers. Farming, in particular, seems very vulnerable given the older age profile of farmers and the mortality pattern of COVID-19 as well as the sector’s common reliance on mobile workforces. This vulnerability, if realized, will mean less food produced and weaker non-farm rural livelihoods and higher food prices for all, wherever we live. Physical distancing will have an impact on the costs of moving food around, within countries and across borders leading to more food loss and emptier markets. Lapses in food safety, which potentially started all this in a wet food market in Wuhan, will likely exacerbate if no action is taken. 

What are the probable effects of COVID-19 (and the efforts to control it) on the food system which shapes our access to nutritious food?

But there are opportunities. Healthier foods build immune systems throughout life but especially among vulnerable ages, including early life and the elderly, and so there is a window of opportunity to make the case for safe nutritious food. Diabetes and other non-communicable diseases are risk factors for COVID19 mortality and additional attention should be given to preventing the former because of the latter. 

We expect to see food safety move strongly up the policy priority list because of the origins of COVID-19. Social protection programs should be more linked to promoting the consumption and production of nutritious food, not just preventing food insecurity. We expect the prevention of food loss, especially fresh food, during storage and transport to gain a greater profile. The aging of farming capacity will be treated more seriously, with efforts increasing to make farming more profitable and appealing to younger generations.

We can see opportunities for reshaping public sector messaging, not only about hygiene but about nutritious food consumption and preparation. Will there be new opportunities to disrupt food transport by using shared economy models capitalizing on any underutilized haulage capacity to lower costs? Will we see more financing facilities for investing in nutritious food production, processing, storage, distribution and retailing? Will civil society become more organized and active about the provenance of food and about the behavior of businesses and governments in ensuring the provision of affordable food? 

Social protection programs should be more linked to promoting the consumption and production of nutritious food, not just preventing food insecurity. © Unsplash

Social protection programs should be more linked to promoting the consumption and production of nutritious food, not just preventing food insecurity. © Unsplash

Finally, will we see greater collaboration between government and the private sector during the crisis spill over into a reshaped narrative post-crisis about how the two sectors - public and private - can work better together to improve access for all to safe nutritious foods?

This is the first of a series of blogs that we will put out in the coming months. We have asked Nutrition Connect to set up a COVID-19 and food systems site and we would like to encourage our partners, colleagues, friends, and fellow travelers to post blogs, opinion pieces and research reports and papers that are relevant to this topic on the site, with full organizational recognition and lots of cross-posting. 

The COVID-19 health crisis is here. Let’s work together to stop it turning into a food crisis and further exacerbating disease burdens.

Governments, communities, and businesses around the world are showing astonishing energy and innovation to cope with COVID-19. The short-term priority is to stabilize food systems and keep trade open – all people working in food systems from the farmer to the check-out supermarket agent are critical to keep the food system moving. But it is in times of great crisis that fundamental reforms are born. The United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the advance of the welfare state were developed in the darkest days of the Second World War.

So let’s stand by our neighbors, critical workers, and communities today. Let’s also work to reshape our food systems for tomorrow - to deal with the new COVID-19 crisis as well as the much bigger diet-related health crisis; one that has been with us for decades. 

Download the mitigation and adaptation table here.

Food bytes: March 21st edition

Food Bytes is a weekly blog post of “nibbles” of information on all things food and nutrition science, policy and culture.

As much as we want to pretend all is normal, it is clearly not. We are in the middle of a global pandemic, with a massive amount of uncertainty, fear, and in some places, complacency. We will be posting another blog entry on the COVID crisis but for now, we will highlight, just a few emerging articles on the growing concern of food insecurity and the food supply, along with our regular updates on all things happening in the food space.

On COVID, we have never been in a situation like this before with talk of it reshaping the global order or social collapse or cohesion. So to predict how markets will continue to react to the future and the health of the global food supply is uncertain. Anyone who postulates how it will go is misleading us. Yes, of course, we can look in real-time on how households and communities are handling the crisis, and we can look to the past, on how other pandemics like the Spanish Flu, impacted food security and supplies. However, times are different. Food supplies are globalized. The population in 1918 was 1.6 billion. We are now at 7.5 billion.

Locusts in east africa (copyright: BBC News)

Rob Vos at IFPRI argues there is no major concern for food insecurity, yet. They came to this conclusion by looking at food prices of staple crops. Huh. As the Brookings Institution rightly pointed out, low-income seniors are already feeling the impacts. In the U.S., with roughly 15% of households being food insecure, some are concerned about their ability to feed themselves in the coming months. A WaPo article quoted: “If coronavirus doesn’t get us, starvation will.” Then there is Africa. Food insecurity and stark hunger could worsen in an already fragile context. East Africa is also reeling from an invasion of locusts which don’t help the already burgeoning food insecurity in the region. This video is pretty insane if you want to see the locust infestation.

The EAT-Lancet Commission report follow ons just keep coming. Did you know that the report has already been cited 790 times since its publication in January 2019? Insane! A few interesting articles are emerging that again test the validity of the Commission’s findings.

The water footprint (blue and green water) of different nut types (shelled) as well as some other food products for comparison, in litre/kg and litre per g of protein. (Vanham et al 2020)

  • One article published by the LIvestock Innovation Lab at the University of Florida shows the importance of animal source foods and explains that raising livestock and eating animal source foods can be compatible with sustainable development.

  • Another article questioned the recommendation in the report to increase nut consumption. The article dissects the water intensity issues in producing trees and ground nuts especially in India, China, Pakistan, the Middle East, Mediterranean, and the U.S. Check out cashews in the figure!!

  • A publication in the Journal of Nutrition argued that the mortality reduction effect of the EAT-Lancet proposed diet in the USA is no greater than the impact of energy consumption changes that would prevent under-weight, over-weight, and obesity alone, calling into question its findings. Authors are funded by the National Cattlemen's Beef Association…

  • Pedro Sanchez, one of the world’s experts on tropical soils and a World Food Prize winner wrote a piece about the land needed to grow the Lancet-EAT diet was oversimplified. He provided some alternative calculations. He argues that current total world food production is estimated at 9.30 billion metric tons of crops and animal-sourced foods, with crops grown in 1.27 billion hectares of land. Implementation of the EAT-Lancet diet for 10 billion people by 2050 would require a lot less, 5.39 billion metric tons of food in 1.10 billion hectares of cropland, assuming no increase in crop yields.

Pedro’s paper was part of a special issue in Food Policy in the Food Policy journal initiated by Editor in Chief Chris Barrett. The issue is about the evolution of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), and the international agricultural research centers (IARCs) that comprise the CGIAR System. Over the past two decades, the CGIAR has undergone a series of reforms with the latest reform being termed “One CGIAR”.  Maybe they should take a lesson from the UN and find out how the One UN worked out…The special issue is out and is meant to “help inform a research strategy for the new One CGIAR.”

Robotics, AI, nano. Will these technologies transform the food system, and eliminate the “human” element from agriculture work? Yet to be seen. This article in the Economist discusses agricultural robots. And they have names: Tom, Dick, and Harry.

In the world of nutrition, meat will remain a controversial topic that is heating up. Nutrition is always accused of having serious conflicts of interest - who pays for the research? Who is biased? Who is paid off? JAMA and Scientific American highlights the controversy with meat-funded research and plant-funded research - and the “bullying” by both sides. Katz responds here. The livestock industry responds here. This debate has left consumers confused, and lacking any trust in science. A few other tidbits on meat. This NYT opinion piece by Alicia Wittmeyer argues that to stop eating meat, can alienate us from our traditions. Meanwhile, the EU is considering a tax on meat.

Speaking of diets, with 2.1 billion overweight and obese adults, and half of the U.S. facing obesity, we need some new strategies. Intermittent fasting seems to be all the rage these days as the best way to lose weight and keep it off. A review in JAMA highlights the evidence, and NYT provided some guidance. We tried it. It is not so hard. Just eat between the hours of noon and 8 pm. Thereafter, no calories should be consumed in solid or liquid forms.

Changes in purchases of high-in beverages, by education level of household head (Tallie Smith et al 2020)

Diet quality matters too. Bee Wilson, an amazing writer of food and its history, wrote a long piece in the Guardian on the contributions of ultra-processed foods on the global obesity crisis. These foods are cheap, attractive and convenient, and we eat them every day. But they are also riddled with sugar, salt, and unhealthy fats. This article is worth the read. Some countries are worried. Take Chile. They instituted a Food Labelling and Advertising which put warning labels on the front of food packages if the food was high in sugar, high in salt or high in fat. Sugary drinks, unhealthy snacks, and packaged foods must carry the front-of-pack labels. These foods are also regulated. These foods cannot be marketed or sold in schools or on TV. Has it worked? Yup. Sales of these foods are down 23%. In college-educated consumers, as you can see in the figure, purchases were done 29%!

Food Bytes: February 10th Edition

Food Bytes is a weekly blog post of “nibbles” of information on all things food and nutrition science, policy and culture.

2020 is off and running and the world finds ways to fill in the gaps it makes.

There is lots of interesting stuff being published or planned for publishing in the food systems space.

There are new journals out there. Nature Food released its inaugural issue called “silos and systems” (with a corn silo on the cover) and it is really great so far. Highly recommend reading it - all open access articles to boot! While it has been around about two years, Nature Sustainability is high-quality and publishes a lot on food systems. Colleagues at Cornell are working with the Journal to come up with evidence-based innovations across food supply chains ready for scale-up. More on this project can be found here. The prestigious Cell Journal now has a sister journal called “One Earth.” While it focuses on climate and earth sciences, there are lots of food gems in each issue thus far.

I am also serving as the Editor in Chief of the Global Food Security Journal. We publish:

  1. Strategic views of experts from a wide range of disciplinary perspectives on prospects for ensuring food security, food systems, and nutrition, based on the best available science, in a clear and readable form for a wide audience, bridging the gap between biological, social and environmental sciences.

  2. Reviews, opinions, and debates that synthesize, extend and critique research approaches and findings from the rapidly growing body of original publications on global food security and food systems.

I am also serving as an Associate Editor of Food Systems and the Environment for the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. We published our 10-year vision. In that, we highlight that the Journal will be soliciting cutting-edge papers that disentangle research that spans food system activities and actors, environmental change, and health and nutrition outcomes, taking into account the rapid socioeconomic, political, and societal transitions in the 21st century. The research space is complex and requires a convergence of new disciplines to understand the benefits and trade-offs of evidence so vital to improving diets and nutrition. We are looking for agriculture, food value chains, climate, environment, and diet themes to come together to answer the many evidence gaps that impact nutrition and human health.

DBM Lancet.png

The Lancet series on the double burden came out in late 2019 basically showing that there is a significant increase in low- and middle-income countries struggling with both undernutrition and overweight and obesity. The second and third papers on the etiology and actions to address the double burden stand out.

There is some controversy brewing in the nutrition world. But what else is new? JAMA published a pretty scathing article about conflicts of interest stemming from the series of articles that meat is actually not detrimental, or at least, neutral for health. JAMA argues that another group of scientists basically bullied the journal into retracting the articles, which did not happen. The JAMA called it “information terrorism.” What a mess.

A few of us from GAIN and Johns Hopkins University presented the Global Food Systems Dashboard at IFPRI last week. Check out the video and highlights here. The Dashboard brings together extant data from public and private sources to help decision-makers diagnose their food systems and identify all their levers of change and the ones that need to be pulled first.  Follow updates and announcements of the official launch on Twitter.

2019: The year of food and nutrition reports!

2019 was an interesting year in the food and nutrition space.

The Lancet had food on its mind this year with THREE Commissions/Series:

The EAT-Lancet Commission made the biggest “footprint” and spurred much debate and controversy, and pissed some people off. Good. That is exactly what it was meant to do. This along with the Syndemic made the Altmetrics top 100 papers of 2019. Cool.

The Global Burden of Disease finally published a solo paper on diets as a risk factor. That too made the Altmetrics top 100 list.

A slew of other reports on food, planet, and people came out this year. See the image below which doesn’t capture everything. They all pretty much say the same thing: We need to transform our food system if we want to save ourselves and the planet that we live on. We cannot disentangle the two. We depend on each other. It won’t be easy. The stakes are high and so are the challenges (like urban and population pressure). It will take significant, synergistic political will and investment. We are running out of time. That is the gist.

Screen Shot 2019-12-22 at 8.03.16 AM.png

The Global Nutrition Report and Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) movement churned on to keep the momentum, largely in the undernutrition space, moving.

We saw some neglected areas get more attention this year. Fish, plant-based burgers, older children and adolescents. The Nobel Prize went to two stellar development economists whose research has informed our thinking on poverty, and how we can reduce it. But of course, with a dose of caution.

The Committee on Food Security is in the process of crafting the Voluntary Guidelines on Food Systems and Nutrition. Regional consultations took place all year, and a draft is now out for review. If you are interested in providing written feedback on Draft One, you can do so by sending comments to cfs@fao.org by February 5, 2020. You can find all the info here.

This was the year of reports. Let’s make 2020 the year of action. We have a lot of evidence of what to do and how to do it. Many of us have written about it in ways in an attempt to get the attention of politicians. Now, we need to take what is written on paper and translate that into changes that matter for people. We need to vote for policymakers that care about these issues at the local level. Let’s push to make food, climate, and health a part of their campaigns, and give them the opportunity to take ownership of the issues.

We also need to think about politics outside our hometowns. We have seen some major shifts in the global political machinery of how we relate to each other and our willingness to participate as global citizens. Some of the heavy hitters, such as the U.S., will continue on its downward spiral into irrelevance, with the UK following close behind. But until they completely make themselves obsolete, their decisions, unfortunately, matter for the world, as we witnessed with the shoulder-shrugging at the COP 25 negotiations in Spain. Another year, lost.

But I am a cautious optimist. Well…let’s not push our luck here. Maybe more of a realist. We have the Tokyo 2020 moment to increase investments for nutrition (which are currently dismal). We will be half-way through the UN Decade of Action on Nutrition and 1/3 through the Sustainable Development Goals (not sure what this means, but hey). Derek Byerlee and I wrote about how far we have come and what achieving SDG2 means for the world. We have the Committee on Food Security hopefully approving the Voluntary Guidelines mentioned above. And we always have COP 26, to stir up a miracle to save the planet. These global moments are important, but not enough.

This is what I plan to do in 2020:

  1. I am going to take a look in my own backyard to make changes (and maybe stop flying around the world, thinking I am saving it).

  2. I will vote with my fork and the dire importance of the 2020 election in the U.S. cannot be understated.

  3. I will work more with people and less with paper – i.e. stop being involved in all these goddamn reports (that few read…).

Food Bytes: October 6th edition

Food Bytes is a weekly blog post of “nibbles” of information on all things food and nutrition science, policy and culture.

Fall has arrived and with it, some interesting controversies in the food space.

Let’s start with sustainable diets. The New Yorker has a great read about the Impossible burger saving climate change. But according to the International Livestock Research Institute, “alt proteins” are not an answer for poorer countries. As Romeo Void sang, “never, say never.” Jonathan Safran Foer was a meat eater and went cold vegan. And he has another book about it.

Who is not going to save us all from climate change? Brazil. There is a lot of attention to the Brazilian Amazon forest fires. Here is a really good video summarizing the current situation of the Brazilian Amazon forest fires, much of it due to beef. Speaking of beef, there was a lot of controversy over a recent publication that it is okay for people to not limit their red meat consumption, following a slew of reports on its harmful impacts on health and the environment. NYT has been covering the controversy and now most recently, backlash with conflicts of interest. It turns out some were funded by the beef cattlemen association and ILSI, quoting NY Times here a “shadowy industry shaping food policy around the world.”

Paul Ferraro of Johns Hopkins has an article about how climate change solutions remain so elusive, particularly on the way we disseminate evidence. He argues: “We've always assumed the evidence must matter, but in reality we have almost a complete absence of evidence about the value of evidence…But then when it comes to building capacity, disseminating that information, we don't apply a scientific lens anymore. We just do it. We have no idea how to effectively use the science and the evidence we generate to move human behavior.” Tru dat.

Screen Shot 2019-10-06 at 2.13.11 PM.png

Maybe fish will save us all. A fantastic article in Nature on the importance of global fisheries in solving micronutrients. My favorite? Shellfish, particularly, clams. Did you know spaghetti vongole was from Naples? Certo!

The World Bank has summarized the current controversy of childhood stunting being equated to a measure of cognitive development. And on the other end of the spectrum of child growth, a new report estimates that the number of obese children globally is predicted to reach 250 million by 2030, up from 150 million now. Wow. Scary stuff. We often things of these child outcomes — stunting, wasting and overweight — as separate, but we should really stop doing that. This article calls for a unified approach. While I agree, it seems these days we are on a divided battlefield in nutrition and food, with no agreement on much of anything in sight. But, I am a pessimist!

Food Bytes: Aug 26 - Aug 31

Food Bytes is a weekly blog post of “nibbles” of information on all things food and nutrition science, policy and culture.

Have you ever wondered which cuisine the world craves? Turns out, Italy. Yeah, no shit Sherlock. Italy is the largest exporter of their cuisine followed by Japan, Turkey and Mexico — Órale! Who is the largest importer, meaning, their food just sucks? You guessed it Sherlock. America. F!@#%* yah! China and Brazil don’t seem so keen on their local cuisine either. They follow the U.S. on importing other country cuisines. Funny. Brazil’s food based dietary guideline boasts harnessing its local cuisine. We guess people just don’t read those pesky guidelines…

Dari Mozaffarian and Dan Glickman wrote a timely op-ed piece in the New York Times that diets are now the number one risk factor killing Americans, costing the U.S. health care system billions each year. They provide a range of solutions and signify that governments and food and beverage industries need to be held accountable. While unhealthy diets continue to kill so many, politicians completely ignore the issue. As America moves towards what will be a contentious, decisive election year, they suggest that “every candidate should have a food platform, and every [presidential] debate should explore these positions.” Not sure this rhetoric will be high on the Trump “make American great again, for real this time” re-election campaign because the “Potus” just ain’t really that into food. Unless you consider consuming fast food a gourmand type diet.

Another op-ed piece in the New York Times by Catherine Kling urges that producers who cause “nutrient pollution,” in the form of nitrogen and phosphorus coming from agriculture fertilizer and manure run-off, should be required to pay for the cleanup. She suggests that state government regulations should be enforced to ensure that farmers reduce nutrient pollution. Wonder how livestock ranchers feel about that? Gee, take a guess.

IFAD and Bioversity just put out a great guideline on supporting nutrition-sensitive neglected and underutilized species (NUS) and wild edibles (check out Figure 2 particularly). The guideline is led by the great Stefano Padulosi at Bioversity who has some deep experience working on NUS value chains in many parts of the world. He is also the “Rocket Man.” What are NUS you ask? Here is how they define it in the guideline:

Many are the synonyms which have been used since the mid-1980s to refer to NUS, including minor, under-used, under-exploited, under-developed, orphan, promising, lost, alternative, traditional, niche crops, crops of the future, future smart food. In reality, all these terms are often context-specific and loaded with heavy cultural meanings and not easily understood in the same way by everybody. The term “Neglected and Underutilized Species” might not be the ideal expression and may not be appealing to people.

There is so much focus these days on diet and the food system footprints on climate change. It is seriously having its moment. But in the back of our mind’s eye, we hark back to an article published in 2017 in Environmental Research Letters, that indicated that largest impact an individual can make to reduce their greenhouse gas footprint is to have one less child. Check out this graphic to the right. Powerful. This action is followed by living car free. Diet is further down the list of impacts. Food for thought…

Interestingly, they didn’t model reducing food waste by individuals. The World Resources Institute (WRI) has just released a global action agenda on reducing food loss and waste by 2030. It is a really practical guide to setting targets, honing in on who should take action and what scalable interventions are available. Everything WRI puts out is pretty stellar and this is another data rich, practical guide to tackle one of the most important issues of the food system.

What if all Americans ate less meat? Not necessarily eliminating meat completely, but just much less? By the way, American are already slowly and steadily decreasing their beef consumption since the 1980s. In the Nature journal Scientific Reports, scientists tested this idea. By replacing 25% meat with plant alternatives dominated (strangely) by soy, green pepper, squash, buckwheat, and asparagus, Americans can eliminate pastureland use while saving 35–50% of their diet related needs for cropland and 330 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions each year, but increase their diet related irrigation needs by 15%.

These advertisements on the left for PETA Vegan guides are all over DC (note the elephant in the background just to remind you that yes, DC is the capitol of the U.S. and the district lives and breathes politics. You can’t get away from it. It will smother, suffocate and slowly destroy you). Where were we? Oh yeah. We picked up the guide and thumbed through it. Some of the recipes didn’t look so tantalizing, and much of what was recommended wasn’t all that healthy. There were lots of photos of faux meat mimicking fried chicken fingers, hotdogs, and meatballs doused in sticky sauce, as well as lots of cakes. Is it possible to promote sustainable, healthy, and animal cruelty free vegan diets for those who choose to go that route PETA? That can’t be too hard can it? While it was an A for effort, maybe version 2 of the guide will feature more healthy foods and less overly processed, junk food.

In other news, with Uber Eats and other gig economy food deliveries on the rise, so is the toll on the drivers delivering food. They are risking their lives in places like South Africa. Tragic. And just to deliver the ultimate convenience to our dinner table.

Venezuela. Talk about a free fall into despair and chaos. Because of the turmoil, food security and the deeper issues of consistent insecurity have taken a big hit. Venezuelans lost an average of twenty-four pounds in body weight. Nine out of ten live in poverty. Roughly one in ten have left the country.

A paper just published in the Lancet hits right at the heart of the trade war between the U.S. and China. The authors feel that it is time to reshape trade policies towards those that favor sustainable food and nutrition systems. They argue there are three starting points for public health actors to take up this agenda.

  1. Recognize the fundamental and front-line nature of trade policy as both a barrier and potential catalyst for health.

  2. Engage more effectively and with the right stakeholders to push for policy space within trade and investment agreements.

  3. Reach beyond trade to promote a development discourse that makes explicit the nutrition imperative — nutrition is crucial to achieving most of the Sustainable Development Goals.

The Food Archive holds a special place in its heart for special focus issues that scientific journals put out. That is, when journals hone in on a hot topic and publish a complementary set of articles on the topic to show different facets and perspectives on the topic.

Here are some recent highlights:

In the last food bytes post, the hard to watch unfold Brazilian Amazon fires were highlighted. This piece highlights that forest fires are happening all over the world, many in biodiverse hotspots, making climate change all that much worse. Very sad not only for forests but for those who live among and depend on them. The map on the right shows fires over the last year. Look at southwest Africa and Southern Africa. Look at Madagascar (think lemurs…) and Southeast Asia. Wah!!

One place prone to massive forest fires (the 2018 fires were the most devastating in the state’s history) is California but every day it finds a way to rub its beauty in our face. Geez, okay Cali, you win.

Speaking of California, and to keep the whole Woodstock vibe going, let’s just end with a little Joni Mitchell, because she sings about omelets and stews and well, because this has to be one of the best albums ever recorded. Click below to hear her beautiful song, California.

Oh the rogue, the red red rogue
He cooked good omelets and stews
And I might have stayed on with him there
But my heart cried out for you, California
Oh California, I'm coming home
Oh make me feel good rock'n roll band
I'm your biggest fan

California, I'm coming home

— Joni Mitchell

 

 

Food Bytes: July 21 - Aug 25

Food Bytes is a weekly blog post of “nibbles” of information on all things food and nutrition science, policy and culture.

Took a bit longer to get up the next Food Bytes entry due to summer holidays. So here it goes.

Summer is going out with a roar. The Inter-Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produced their outstanding report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. Lots of media coverage followed. Diet recommendations were made (reducing beef, taking on a more flexitarian diet etc). If we want to live in this changed climate, we need to adapt. The saber-toothed tiger had a less flexitarian diet and we know what happened to them…

Speaking of adapting, scientists found a “stature gene” among Central African hunter gatherers, also known as pygmies. This short gene gave them an advantage in Africa’s hot, humid rainforests. I was really hoping this gene hopped across the Atlantic to Italians, or even more so, short Italian American women living in DC to help explain my enduring squat-ness, but alas, no such luck. While on the topic of luck, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists, you should also stay away from cereal that has corn as the main ingredient if you want to have an environmentally friendly diet. So better forget about your Froot Loops and Trix and reach instead for your Lucky Charms.

Farmgate value of global vegetable production by income groups of countries, average 2012–2013, current US dollars (Source: Schreinemachers et al 2019 GFS Journal)

Let’s continue with the climate onslaught shall we? This article talks about the beginning of the end of the livestock industry. But is that really so? Don’t underestimate the chicken man. And do you know how much of a carbon footprint you consume with your diet? BBC provides a calculator - do the math and you will quickly be blanketed in a quilt of guilt. It ain’t just beef that you gotta worry about…

Sam Myers of Harvard published a great piece in the WaPo on how increased CO2 in the atmosphere will “zap” nutrients from key crops. He argues that 175 million people could become zinc-deficient, 122 million would not be able to get protein, and 0.5 billion would have iron-deficiency-related disease. So now we need to worry not only about getting enough food to feed 10 billion, but the quality of those foods in fulfilling our nutrient needs. And the declines in nutritional quality are happening in real time. A study examining 43 “garden” crops in the U.S. found declines of 6 nutrients - protein, calcium, iron, phosphorous, riboflavin and vitamin C - since 1950. The food supply already can’t keep up. Mario Herrero and colleagues found that our current food supply does not produce enough fruits and vegetables, and in the course of the next 30 years, that supply will worsen. If everyone were to follow the WHO recommendation of 400 g/person/day of fruits and vegetables, 1.9 billion people would not have the access to these foods – the food supply just cannot keep up.

But a recent article in the Global Food Security Journal argues that vegetables hold a lot of economic power. Yeah sure. That is, if we can produce them. And then people want to eat them. They suggest that governments will need to increase their investment in farm productivity including improved varieties, alternatives to chemical pesticides, and the use of protected cultivation. There is also a need for better post-harvest storage of veggies, food safety and market opportunities. To tap the nutritional power of vegetables, consumers need to know how vegetables contribute to health, be able to afford them, or be able to grow them themselves. God speed to those New Yorkers living in 300 square feet of space with no windows and definitely, no outdoor space.

The recent paper by Eker and colleagues, published in Nature Sustainability, adds to the sustainable diet literature and evidence base, examining how consumer diet shifts can contribute to mitigation of climate change. Utilizing scenario assessments, the authors model the impacts of different compositional and behavioral dietary shifts among the global population on environmental footprints. Compositional dietary shifts included average meat consumption, flexitarian (more plant-based), vegetarian, and vegan dietary patterns. As other studies have shown, changes in diet composition towards more plant-based diets, have implications on the environment. However, more significant shifts, by a large swatch of the world’s population, towards vegetarianism would need to occur to see impacts on greenhouse gases and other environmental measures (such as land use). The paper is unique in that it models the behavioral dietary shifts among consumers and their impacts. The authors found that younger populations (ages 15-45) respond to social norm behaviors, that is, as the world moves towards more vegetarian type diets, the change towards those diets is more rapid.

They argue that the values a society holds among peer groups can outweigh the influence of scientific facts. This was evident in that behavior shifts in response to health or climate risks were not as significant as motivators of behavior change. Secondary education attainment (a predominant proportion of the world’s population) and self efficacy and identity among women were also important motivators of dietary behavioral change. This study argues that for us, as individuals to make an impact on the environment through our diets, significant shifts need to be made by a large segment of the world’s population. These shifts require a movement towards a vegetarian type diet to reap both environmental and health benefits. Much of this change would happen through peer influence (think social media), through women’s agency, and through those with a secondary school education. The change, would need to happen on a grand, transformative level as called for by the EAT-Lancet Commission report in early January 2019.

Fires in the Brazilian Amazon. Source: NYTIMES

Foreign Policy well articulates the findings from the EAT Lancet and the IPCC report here and argue that the global food crisis is here. Now. Live. I also was on the Bloomberg Daybreak America’s show to discuss the impacts of the food system and diets on climate change. Check out the show here (segment starts at 1:22:50). Scientists have been forecasting their warnings for 40 years - they were right and no one listened. Maybe people (and governments) will start paying more attention and take some serious action. The NOAA show that July 2019 was the hottest month on record since they started recording temperatures. Speaking of heat, the Brazilian amazon fires are getting lots of attention right now. The NY Times shows a time scale of problem. It should be noted that these human induced fires are mainly done to prepare agriculture lands. And they occur every year, around the same time in the Amazon. The article makes three points on why these fires are different. (1) There were 35 percent more fires so far this year than in the average of the last eight years. (2) There has been a rise in deforestation in recent years, after a long period of decline. (3) While a large majority of the fires were on land that had already been cleared of forests many others are burning with particular intensity that are “deforestation fires.”

While we are discussing trees, it seems a banana fungus, known as “Fusarium wilt tropical race 4 (TR4)” has been devastating plantations in Asia and now the Americas. It is supposedly impossible to eradicate and can live in soil for 30 years. The economic upheaval cannot be overstated. Speaking of loss, a study out of Santa Clara University found that one-third of edible produce (like tomatoes, sweet corn, artichokes, watermelon, cabbage, strawberries and kale) remains unharvested in the fields. Reasons? Field/harvest stability, weather, pests and plant diseases, labor availability, market prices, and buyer specifications for how produce should look and feel like.

By the time we got to Woodstock…

I just can’t keep up with all the latest food trends. Did you know McDonalds has jumped on the podcast bandwagon? Yeehaw. Virtual restaurants are on the rise, meaning that they are digital-only establishments that don’t need a dining room or waiters. They rely on people ordering their food from apps. But kickin it back to ol’ school, this article gives ode to the Waffle House, started in 1955 in Avondale Estates Georgia. You just can’t replicate that with an app. Oh, how I reminisce of those bygone days. Can you believe Woodstock happened 50 years ago? I just bought this book: Hippie Food: How Back-to-the-Landers, Longhairs, and Revolutionaries Changed the Way We Eat by Jonathan Kauffman. Bring on the tempeh. Seems all things hippie are back in style. Keep an eye out for a blog dedicated to 1968-1969 and how it influenced our food ways.

Delving further back into history, the New York Times has an excellent piece on the “barbaric history of sugar” that fueled slavery in the United States. By the mid-19th century, the U.S. had 125,000 slaves working on sugar plantations! Fast forward to today, we are now trying to figure out how to reduce, remove or tax this “white gold” in the food supply. Forty countries and 7 cities have a sugar tax. The Economist highlights a study showing how to optimize sugar taxes without regressive effects. They suggest that: “In the real world, if taxes in one place get too high shoppers will arbitrage the rules by traveling to buy soft drinks elsewhere. Taking this into account they reckon that the optimal rate for cities is 0.5 cents, although a more efficient system would be a state or national tax to control America’s sugar rush.”

Impact of climate change on crops, water and income in Timor-Leste. Source: Bonis-Profumo et al 2019.

Here is just a few cool papers, reports and books that came out in the last few weeks:

  • Association Between Plant-Based Dietary Patterns and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. There is a strong inverse dose response association between plant-based diets and risk of type 2 diabetes This association was strengthened when healthy plant-based foods, such as fruits, vegetables, whole grains, legumes, and nuts.

  • Soft condensed matter physics of foods and macronutrients. This article discusses the importance of physics in understanding the texture, taste, and composition of foods. It is an atom-colliding article of food science and matter physics. Get your genius on.

  • Ravaged landscapes and climate vulnerability: The challenge in achieving food security and nutrition in post-conflict Timor-Leste. This article focuses on the fascinating Timor-Leste - an agrarian society that won independence in 2002 and is struggling to achieve food security and reduce undernutrition as the country modernizes. The economy depends on fossil fuel revenues and oil reserves are dwindling. A review of climate, agricultural, and nutrition data reveals high weather vulnerability, low agricultural productivity, and slow dietary and nutritional progress. But solutions exist. Agricultural sector actions can make important contributions to poverty reduction, food security, dietary diversity, micronutrient sufficiency, and overall nutrition. Agriculture can be made to be more nutrition- and gender-sensitive with a focus on mixed farming systems, biodiversity, climate-smart practices, and access to inputs, training, and technologies for farmers to enable sustainable and healthy rural livelihoods. Ultimately, productivity levels must improve to support the availability of sufficient and nutritious foods.

  • Gene-environment interplay: what do our genes say about dietary choices? Those of us who work in public health often forget about epigenetics and the way our genes play out in our diets and health status. The authors say: Diet is not just dictated by guidelines and individual choices, but also by availability and accessibility. Therefore, future studies that investigate the relationship of gene expression and a healthy diet in individuals exposed to a similar environmental milieu—for example, in accessibility, inducements, and the socioeconomic construct—are needed to understand the gene–environment interplay at the community level. These results can leverage genetic expression analyses to provide early biological footprints of an unhealthy diet environment, in order to facilitate the investigation of social factors that influence prevalences and outcomes of disease processes, such as food deserts and food swamps.”

  • Trends and Correlates of Overweight among Pre-School Age Children, Adolescent Girls, and Adult Women in South Asia: An Analysis of Data from Twelve National Surveys in Six Countries over Twenty Years. The researchers found that overweight children had significantly higher odds of having an overweight mother and were more likely to come from wealthier households, live in urban areas, and have more education.

  • Modernization of African Food Retailing and (Un)healthy Food Consumption. In Zambia, two-thirds of the households use modern and traditional retailers simultaneously, but richer households are more likely than poorer ones to use supermarkets and hypermarkets. Use of modern retailers is positively associated with higher consumption of ultra-processed foods, after also controlling for income and other socioeconomic factors. However, the use of traditional stores and kiosks is also positively associated with the consumption of ultra-processed foods, suggesting that modern retailers are not the only drivers of dietary transitions. Interesting!

  • The SDG of zero hunger 75 years on: Turning full circle on agriculture and nutrition. In this paper, Derek Byerlee and I look back to the pioneering 1943 UN Conference on Food and Agriculture in Hot Springs, Virginia where the first international commitment to ending hunger was made. Despite these good intentions, however, the agricultural and nutrition communities largely went their separate ways for the next 50 years. Following through on the conference’s balanced approach of “more and better food” would have resulted in better nutrition for all. Today, the SDGs have once again put nutrition and agriculture together at center stage. Despite some important gaps in knowledge, financing, and implementation capacity, we are finally in a better position to shape food systems in a way that ends hunger and all forms of malnutrition.

  • Technical Brief: Economic Evaluations of Multi-sectoral Actions for Health and Nutrition. This is a fantastic brief by the AHN Academy. This is a fantastic brief by the AHN Academy to “created to advance knowledge and scientific understanding among the global research community of economic evaluation methods and metrics related to costs and benefits of agriculture, food and livelihood strategies for nutrition and health.” They examine different types of economic evaluations and move towards standardizing a set of metrics to economically assess nutrition.

  • The Political Economy of Food. Jody Harris and colleagues at IDS just published this IDS Bulletin that examines the issues of power across food systems. It looks at the various active players, relationships, activities, and institutions that play a major role in shaping food systems and power inequities. This was a much needed publication and I plan to use it in my class on food policy.

How much does it cost to eat a decent meal?

The incredible Alex Honnold, also a vegan… Copyright: The great Jimmy Chin for National Geographic

The answer to that question turns out to be a lot for some people. There are have been some recent projects and papers as a result aimed at trying to understand whether or not people can afford the kind of diets recommended in national food-based dietary guidelines, the EAT Lancet, and other publications. Many have pontificated that these healthy, higher quality diets — promoted in such guidelines and Commissions made up elitist scientists — are unaffordable for most of the world. Some argue the recommendations are just downright dangerous (beef industry responding to the EAT Lancet) or unfair. GAIN argued that meat is important for child growth, and athletes. I don’t think they meant it is an absolute essential for athletes, as Alex Honnold is a vegan and that dude climbed El Capitan with nothing but sheer muscle strength, stamina and maybe an insanely lack of feeling of fear. If you have not seen the documentary Free Solo, I highly recommend it. What a human feat, and with no meat! Yes, I wax poetic.

This debate is not new, and there has been a lot of science articulated the cost. And there are more papers to come. But a few new papers are looking beyond just a specific country, a specific national dietary database or a specific population, and looking at the costs of foods and diets around the world from low- to high-income countries, whether they fulfill nutritional needs, and if not, what disease outcomes are they associated with.

IFPRI’s Derek Headey and Harold Alderman, two pretty stellar researchers in nutrition, published a fantastic piece in the Journal of Nutrition. They tested relative caloric prices (RCPs) for different food categories across 176 countries. One will have to read the methods in some detail to understand how they come up with this calculation but one key piece is how they calculate the RCP. They measure the ratio of the price of 1 calorie of a given food (the edible portion) to the price of 1 calorie of a representative basket of starchy staple food in each country. As the authors articulated: an RCP of 5 for eggs implies that it is 5 times as expensive to obtain a calorie from eggs as it is to obtain a calorie from starchy staples. Easy yes?

While the authors find that there is a lot of variety in the food prices nationally, in high-income countries, most non-cereal foods were relatively cheap, including sugar- and fat-rich foods. In contrast, in low-income countries, healthy foods were expensive, especially most animal-sourced foods and fortified infant cereals. Oils/fats were notably very cheap in all regions as were unprocessed red meat, which was moderately cheap in all regions. As the authors wrote in a recent blog:

“As countries develop, their food systems get better at providing healthier foods cheaply, but they also get better at providing unhealthier foods cheaply. Hence the problem in less developed countries is that poor people also live in poor food systems: Nutrient-dense foods like eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables can be very expensive in these countries, making it much harder to diversify away from nutrient-sparse staple foods like rice, corn and bread. The problem in more developed countries is rather different: Unhealthy calories have simply become a very affordable option. In the U.S., for example, calories from soft drinks are just 1.9 times as expensive as staple food calories and require no preparation time.”

The authors then looked at the association of these prices with nutrition outcomes, controlling for confounders like education, urbanization and income. Higher milk and fortified infant product prices were positively associated with childhood stunting. They also found that little children consume less of these important foods when expensive. An increase in soft drink prices was associated with a reduction on overweight prevalence.

Headey and Alderman show the association of milk prices with childhood stunting. Copyright: IFPRI

A few years ago Adam Drewnowski and Nicole Darmon published a study, using very different methodology and from French databases, showing that foods of lower nutritional value and lower-quality diets generally cost less per calorie and tended to be selected by groups of lower socioeconomic status. A number of nutrient-dense foods were available at low cost but were not always palatable or culturally acceptable to the low-income consumer. Acceptable healthier diets were uniformly associated with higher costs. They argue three things:

  1. Energy-dense foods composed of refined grains, added sugars, or fats are cheaper per calorie than are the recommended nutrient-dense foods.

  2. Lower-quality diets, with a higher content of added sugars and fats, were generally less expensive on a per-calorie basis.

  3. Cheaper and more energy-dense diets, often devoid of vegetables and fruit, tend to be selected across different countries by lower-income groups.

Another paper coming out in the Lancet by IFPRI (including Headey) and Tufts colleagues including the great Will Masters, examined retail prices of foods and identified the most affordable foods to meet EAT-Lancet targets. They compared the total cost per day of these foods to each country's gross national income to see if the MOST affordable EAT-Lancet diet exceeded household incomes.

Here is what they found: Examining 744 items across 159 countries, revealing that the most affordable EAT-Lancet diets cost a global average of $2.89 per day ($2.44 per day for low-income countries and $2.77 for high-income countries). The largest share was the diet cost was fruits and vegetables (31.2%), followed by legumes and nuts (18.7%), meat, eggs and fish (15.2%) and dairy (13.2%). While this is a pretty cheap diet in high-income countries, it is not affordable for 1.56 billion of the poorest households in the world where this diet would cost households 70% of their daily income (national averages)! Where is this diet unaffordable? Mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

On the left side is the cost of the EAT-Lancet diet by country income levels and major regions. On the right side, is the cost of the EAT-Lancet diet as a percentage of Gross National Income per capita. Copyright: Lancet.

They also concluded that the EAT-Lancet diet would cost 64% more than achieving minimally adequate levels of essential nutrients and is currently unaffordable in low-income countries, because “it requires larger quantities of higher-cost food groups such as dairy, eggs, meat, fish, fruits and vegetables than the near-subsistence diets that are currently consumed by very low-income people.” The authors argue that:

“Our findings indicate that a widespread global shift to the EAT-Lancet diet recommendation is feasible only through some combination of higher earnings, more favorable market prices and nutrition assistance for low-income people, in addition to changes in local and global food systems that drive food choice among more affluent populations. Meeting EAT-Lancet targets in low-income areas will require higher farm productivity and improved access to markets, plus greater non-farm earnings and social safety nets, allowing people to shift consumption away from starchy staples and increase their intake of more nutritious but currently unaffordable animal-sourced and vegetal foods.”

Sam Bloch tested out the EAT-Lancet diet in early 2019 and wrote up a great piece in the New Food Economy (love this site). He found it hard to follow and it was more expensive. And he is probably a high-income consumer (living in New York City) and his wife is a chef!

A group at World Food Programme is doing a “Fill the Nutrient Gap” (FNG), which aims to “support identification of strategies to increase availability, access, and choice of nutritious foods, to ultimately improve nutrient intake.” This approach looks at the nutrient intake of different target groups, and then uses linear programming to look at the barriers to nutrient intake including the availability, cost and affordability of nutritious diets for households and target groups with higher nutritional needs. They then model potential interventions to improve them. I have heard they have done at least 25 countries. So they are taking it further as compared to these other studies. They are not only looking at the cost of diets, but why they are expensive and what households can do about it.

In last year’s Global Nutrition Report, we showed some preliminary data on the range of non-affordability of a nutritious diet across areas in different countries. The data shows a range of non-affordability depending on the region in each country – for example, across different regions of El Salvador, 9% to 44% of households cannot afford a nutritious diet, whereas the range is much greater in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (17% to 95%).

The range of “non-affordability” of the typical diet in select countries. Copyright: GNR 2018

There are others working on the cost of a diet. Marco Springmann will also test out the cost of the EAT-Lancet diet, as an EAT-Lancet Commissioner. I think his study will look more at the cost of dietary patterns - vegetarian, pescetarian, omnivorous etc. So keep your eye out on that publication!