It is easy to see the beginnings of things, and harder to see the ends.

At least, that is what Joan Didion wrote in “Goodbye to All That.” She was referring to herself when she moved to New York City and unexpectedly stayed for a good long while. Maybe too long.

I have been thinking a lot about what she wrote, feeling the palpability of those words as we mark our 30th day in self-isolation amidst a global COVID-19 pandemic, without a clue to where we are within it. The end is indeed abstruse. Are we at the beginning of it? Are we in the middle? Or nearing the end? It is harder to see, know, or predict when this will all resolve, and no Jim Morrison, the end is not always near.

We saw COVID coming for a while now. We had early lessons of historical pandemics in which many of us mortal souls perished. The Plague (killing 200+ million), the Spanish Flu (killing 50+ million), and HIV/AIDS (killing 25+ million and still going on). The visual below shows the impact of these pandemics killing 25 to 35% of the total global population. We have also been warned over the last two decades that more and more zoonotic diseases — i.e. animal to human transmitted diseases — are coming and creeping into our food supply. Think avian and swine flu, SARS, and MERS.

Then there are other infectious diseases that are downright scary, but seem to be contained to certain regional epidemics. Think Ebola and Zika. These have never quite made the jump to be classified as a “pandemic” which is classified as a disease impacting every country in the world, yet.. Then there are the insidious, neglected and tropical diseases like river blindness, Leishmaniasis, and Guinea worm that impact people living in the poorest areas of the world. And Dengue and malaria continue to wreak their widespread havoc. The warnings were and are persistently there.

The beginning of COVID-19 was surreal, yet predictable to witness, much like watching the beginnings of Steven Soderberg’s movie Contagion (a virus that spread from China to the rest of the world via air travel, killing 25% of the global population, which stemmed from a bat to pig to human food system zoonotic transmission). Noticing events unfold mid-to-late December in China, as it quickly made its way through some Asian countries, and then slammed into Italy, were obvious signs that this virus moves fast and stealthy, and does not discriminate. And it was coming for everyone, leaving no one behind. Observing the way governments responded to tampering down the virus has been mixed, with the U.S. being way too slow to move and react, and with a “president” who not only doesn’t understand the science but doesn’t care to learn and listen to the experts (like the great Tony Fauci) who surround him reluctantly. Now, the country is reeling from the highest number of cases and deaths in the world.

We also had knowledge and evidence of how such a pandemic would unfold and how the food system is particularly vulnerable to being the source and breeder of these zoonotic type diseases. Now one might wonder if COVID-19 is truly a zoonotic disease. Its origins are being debated in the scientific literature. While there are some thoughts that the virus originated from a wet market in Wuhan, scientists are still unclear about its origin. Did it come from animal and if so, which one(s)? Did it really come from a seafood market or from food at all? There are many early assumptions that it came from snakes or pangolins. The science is leaning towards snakes not being the source. Viruses have a hell of a time jumping from warm-blooded to cold-blooded back to warm-blooded. And it is thought overall that COVID-19, like SARS, is a mammalian virus. There was one article in late January 2020 in the Journal of Medical Virology that though some of the genetic code of the COVID can be found in two snake varieties, but that has been discredited.

There is an interesting article in Nature that is trying to determine its origins. The starting point is the genome: 80% of the COVID-19 genome is shared with SARS and 96% with bat coronaviruses. They hypothesize that the origin of COVID-19 is either natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer (bat to pig or bat to pangolin) OR (ii) natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer (so human to human, i.e. SARS to COVID).

I am going to write more about zoonotic (also known as zoonoses) diseases for a new blog series myself and some stellar colleagues are curating on COVID-19 and nutrition. Still, for now, it is of the utmost importance for the global community to prevent these food-borne zoonotic diseases in the future. Scaling up a “One Health” approach is one way to prevent future pandemics.

Humans co-exist with animals - as companions for our overall wellbeing, as producers of food, and as a source of livelihoods. This interface between animals and humans and their shared environments can be a source of disease too. Those who work on One Health work at this interface to prevent zoonotic diseases from spreading by considering animal, human, and environmental connections.

But here we are, with each day running into another, wondering if tomorrow will be different or more of the same. For now, we are stuck in this endless cycle of a beginning. But maybe this is a new beginning - one of a new reality, a new way to see the world and our place in it, and a new appreciation of what we have and a profound sadness and empathy for those who have less or have suffered loss, in every shape and form. The question is, when the end is near, or even better yet, comes and COVID-19 is in the rearview mirror, what will we be as a human society then? Hopefully, one that is better informed, ready, and resilient for the next one.

The COVID-19 Crisis and Food Systems: Addressing threats, creating opportunities

Lawrence Haddad, Jess Fanzo, Steve Godfrey, Corinna Hawkes, Saul Morris, and Lynnette Neufeld

With the spread of COVID-19, we find ourselves plunged into a global health crisis. By most accounts, we are only at the early stages of the pandemic so it is going to reshape economy, society, and politics, probably permanently.

Pre-COVID-19 crisis, many families the world over already spent a lot of time and energy thinking about getting access to food. During the crisis, the most vulnerable face the rapid loss of their income - spent mainly on food - and this is an immediate threat that should be prioritized. For many others, simple access to shops has also become very worrying and needs swift attention. Even the wealthy are increasingly thinking about food access at this time.

But are governments, businesses and civil society thinking enough about food access and the wider food system?

How will the crisis shape the food system if we do nothing? And what can we do in the context of the crisis to get the food system in better shape to improve the consumption of nutritious foods for all, especially the most vulnerable?

We desperately need to focus on the operation of food systems at the moment because we know that the quality and quantity of the food we eat is the number one risk factor in the prevention of general mortality and morbidity. If we forget the food system right now, the COVID-19 health crisis will unwittingly use the food system as a catapult to have an even bigger impact on the global burden of disease. If we think and act to change the food system right now, we can reposition it to be more effective at delivering affordable nutritious food during the crisis, and perhaps even after the crisis.

What are the probable effects of COVID-19 (and the efforts to control it) on the food system which shapes our access to nutritious food?

It is difficult to say for sure, but in this table we share some thoughts on the potential impacts throughout the food system of COVID-19 (and the response to it), and some ways of mitigating the impacts. We do this for high- and low-income contexts, which may well exist within the same countries. Many of our suggested actions are responses to immediate needs, but many would have positive impacts well after the crisis is under control.

What are the main threats? We are of course worried about food prices, especially for more nutritious foods, which are already more expensive than staples and unaffordable for many people, especially those on low incomes who already spend much of their money on food. More food staples will be consumed as a result of price hikes, but likely also more, unhealthy, highly processed foods that are cheaper, have longer shelf lives and may provide comfort in tough times. In addition, increased food price volatility (due in part to hoarding and cross border impediments) generates uncertainty and makes it more difficult for food system actors to take all manner of decisions.

We are also deeply worried about negative income shocks on the most vulnerable, through the loss of livelihoods as the demand for certain services collapses and certain production systems are disrupted due to affected workers. Farming, in particular, seems very vulnerable given the older age profile of farmers and the mortality pattern of COVID-19 as well as the sector’s common reliance on mobile workforces. This vulnerability, if realized, will mean less food produced and weaker non-farm rural livelihoods and higher food prices for all, wherever we live. Physical distancing will have an impact on the costs of moving food around, within countries and across borders leading to more food loss and emptier markets. Lapses in food safety, which potentially started all this in a wet food market in Wuhan, will likely exacerbate if no action is taken. 

What are the probable effects of COVID-19 (and the efforts to control it) on the food system which shapes our access to nutritious food?

But there are opportunities. Healthier foods build immune systems throughout life but especially among vulnerable ages, including early life and the elderly, and so there is a window of opportunity to make the case for safe nutritious food. Diabetes and other non-communicable diseases are risk factors for COVID19 mortality and additional attention should be given to preventing the former because of the latter. 

We expect to see food safety move strongly up the policy priority list because of the origins of COVID-19. Social protection programs should be more linked to promoting the consumption and production of nutritious food, not just preventing food insecurity. We expect the prevention of food loss, especially fresh food, during storage and transport to gain a greater profile. The aging of farming capacity will be treated more seriously, with efforts increasing to make farming more profitable and appealing to younger generations.

We can see opportunities for reshaping public sector messaging, not only about hygiene but about nutritious food consumption and preparation. Will there be new opportunities to disrupt food transport by using shared economy models capitalizing on any underutilized haulage capacity to lower costs? Will we see more financing facilities for investing in nutritious food production, processing, storage, distribution and retailing? Will civil society become more organized and active about the provenance of food and about the behavior of businesses and governments in ensuring the provision of affordable food? 

Social protection programs should be more linked to promoting the consumption and production of nutritious food, not just preventing food insecurity. © Unsplash

Social protection programs should be more linked to promoting the consumption and production of nutritious food, not just preventing food insecurity. © Unsplash

Finally, will we see greater collaboration between government and the private sector during the crisis spill over into a reshaped narrative post-crisis about how the two sectors - public and private - can work better together to improve access for all to safe nutritious foods?

This is the first of a series of blogs that we will put out in the coming months. We have asked Nutrition Connect to set up a COVID-19 and food systems site and we would like to encourage our partners, colleagues, friends, and fellow travelers to post blogs, opinion pieces and research reports and papers that are relevant to this topic on the site, with full organizational recognition and lots of cross-posting. 

The COVID-19 health crisis is here. Let’s work together to stop it turning into a food crisis and further exacerbating disease burdens.

Governments, communities, and businesses around the world are showing astonishing energy and innovation to cope with COVID-19. The short-term priority is to stabilize food systems and keep trade open – all people working in food systems from the farmer to the check-out supermarket agent are critical to keep the food system moving. But it is in times of great crisis that fundamental reforms are born. The United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the advance of the welfare state were developed in the darkest days of the Second World War.

So let’s stand by our neighbors, critical workers, and communities today. Let’s also work to reshape our food systems for tomorrow - to deal with the new COVID-19 crisis as well as the much bigger diet-related health crisis; one that has been with us for decades. 

Download the mitigation and adaptation table here.

Food bytes: March 21st edition

Food Bytes is a weekly blog post of “nibbles” of information on all things food and nutrition science, policy and culture.

As much as we want to pretend all is normal, it is clearly not. We are in the middle of a global pandemic, with a massive amount of uncertainty, fear, and in some places, complacency. We will be posting another blog entry on the COVID crisis but for now, we will highlight, just a few emerging articles on the growing concern of food insecurity and the food supply, along with our regular updates on all things happening in the food space.

On COVID, we have never been in a situation like this before with talk of it reshaping the global order or social collapse or cohesion. So to predict how markets will continue to react to the future and the health of the global food supply is uncertain. Anyone who postulates how it will go is misleading us. Yes, of course, we can look in real-time on how households and communities are handling the crisis, and we can look to the past, on how other pandemics like the Spanish Flu, impacted food security and supplies. However, times are different. Food supplies are globalized. The population in 1918 was 1.6 billion. We are now at 7.5 billion.

Locusts in east africa (copyright: BBC News)

Rob Vos at IFPRI argues there is no major concern for food insecurity, yet. They came to this conclusion by looking at food prices of staple crops. Huh. As the Brookings Institution rightly pointed out, low-income seniors are already feeling the impacts. In the U.S., with roughly 15% of households being food insecure, some are concerned about their ability to feed themselves in the coming months. A WaPo article quoted: “If coronavirus doesn’t get us, starvation will.” Then there is Africa. Food insecurity and stark hunger could worsen in an already fragile context. East Africa is also reeling from an invasion of locusts which don’t help the already burgeoning food insecurity in the region. This video is pretty insane if you want to see the locust infestation.

The EAT-Lancet Commission report follow ons just keep coming. Did you know that the report has already been cited 790 times since its publication in January 2019? Insane! A few interesting articles are emerging that again test the validity of the Commission’s findings.

The water footprint (blue and green water) of different nut types (shelled) as well as some other food products for comparison, in litre/kg and litre per g of protein. (Vanham et al 2020)

  • One article published by the LIvestock Innovation Lab at the University of Florida shows the importance of animal source foods and explains that raising livestock and eating animal source foods can be compatible with sustainable development.

  • Another article questioned the recommendation in the report to increase nut consumption. The article dissects the water intensity issues in producing trees and ground nuts especially in India, China, Pakistan, the Middle East, Mediterranean, and the U.S. Check out cashews in the figure!!

  • A publication in the Journal of Nutrition argued that the mortality reduction effect of the EAT-Lancet proposed diet in the USA is no greater than the impact of energy consumption changes that would prevent under-weight, over-weight, and obesity alone, calling into question its findings. Authors are funded by the National Cattlemen's Beef Association…

  • Pedro Sanchez, one of the world’s experts on tropical soils and a World Food Prize winner wrote a piece about the land needed to grow the Lancet-EAT diet was oversimplified. He provided some alternative calculations. He argues that current total world food production is estimated at 9.30 billion metric tons of crops and animal-sourced foods, with crops grown in 1.27 billion hectares of land. Implementation of the EAT-Lancet diet for 10 billion people by 2050 would require a lot less, 5.39 billion metric tons of food in 1.10 billion hectares of cropland, assuming no increase in crop yields.

Pedro’s paper was part of a special issue in Food Policy in the Food Policy journal initiated by Editor in Chief Chris Barrett. The issue is about the evolution of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), and the international agricultural research centers (IARCs) that comprise the CGIAR System. Over the past two decades, the CGIAR has undergone a series of reforms with the latest reform being termed “One CGIAR”.  Maybe they should take a lesson from the UN and find out how the One UN worked out…The special issue is out and is meant to “help inform a research strategy for the new One CGIAR.”

Robotics, AI, nano. Will these technologies transform the food system, and eliminate the “human” element from agriculture work? Yet to be seen. This article in the Economist discusses agricultural robots. And they have names: Tom, Dick, and Harry.

In the world of nutrition, meat will remain a controversial topic that is heating up. Nutrition is always accused of having serious conflicts of interest - who pays for the research? Who is biased? Who is paid off? JAMA and Scientific American highlights the controversy with meat-funded research and plant-funded research - and the “bullying” by both sides. Katz responds here. The livestock industry responds here. This debate has left consumers confused, and lacking any trust in science. A few other tidbits on meat. This NYT opinion piece by Alicia Wittmeyer argues that to stop eating meat, can alienate us from our traditions. Meanwhile, the EU is considering a tax on meat.

Speaking of diets, with 2.1 billion overweight and obese adults, and half of the U.S. facing obesity, we need some new strategies. Intermittent fasting seems to be all the rage these days as the best way to lose weight and keep it off. A review in JAMA highlights the evidence, and NYT provided some guidance. We tried it. It is not so hard. Just eat between the hours of noon and 8 pm. Thereafter, no calories should be consumed in solid or liquid forms.

Changes in purchases of high-in beverages, by education level of household head (Tallie Smith et al 2020)

Diet quality matters too. Bee Wilson, an amazing writer of food and its history, wrote a long piece in the Guardian on the contributions of ultra-processed foods on the global obesity crisis. These foods are cheap, attractive and convenient, and we eat them every day. But they are also riddled with sugar, salt, and unhealthy fats. This article is worth the read. Some countries are worried. Take Chile. They instituted a Food Labelling and Advertising which put warning labels on the front of food packages if the food was high in sugar, high in salt or high in fat. Sugary drinks, unhealthy snacks, and packaged foods must carry the front-of-pack labels. These foods are also regulated. These foods cannot be marketed or sold in schools or on TV. Has it worked? Yup. Sales of these foods are down 23%. In college-educated consumers, as you can see in the figure, purchases were done 29%!

Food Bytes: February 10th Edition

Food Bytes is a weekly blog post of “nibbles” of information on all things food and nutrition science, policy and culture.

2020 is off and running and the world finds ways to fill in the gaps it makes.

There is lots of interesting stuff being published or planned for publishing in the food systems space.

There are new journals out there. Nature Food released its inaugural issue called “silos and systems” (with a corn silo on the cover) and it is really great so far. Highly recommend reading it - all open access articles to boot! While it has been around about two years, Nature Sustainability is high-quality and publishes a lot on food systems. Colleagues at Cornell are working with the Journal to come up with evidence-based innovations across food supply chains ready for scale-up. More on this project can be found here. The prestigious Cell Journal now has a sister journal called “One Earth.” While it focuses on climate and earth sciences, there are lots of food gems in each issue thus far.

I am also serving as the Editor in Chief of the Global Food Security Journal. We publish:

  1. Strategic views of experts from a wide range of disciplinary perspectives on prospects for ensuring food security, food systems, and nutrition, based on the best available science, in a clear and readable form for a wide audience, bridging the gap between biological, social and environmental sciences.

  2. Reviews, opinions, and debates that synthesize, extend and critique research approaches and findings from the rapidly growing body of original publications on global food security and food systems.

I am also serving as an Associate Editor of Food Systems and the Environment for the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. We published our 10-year vision. In that, we highlight that the Journal will be soliciting cutting-edge papers that disentangle research that spans food system activities and actors, environmental change, and health and nutrition outcomes, taking into account the rapid socioeconomic, political, and societal transitions in the 21st century. The research space is complex and requires a convergence of new disciplines to understand the benefits and trade-offs of evidence so vital to improving diets and nutrition. We are looking for agriculture, food value chains, climate, environment, and diet themes to come together to answer the many evidence gaps that impact nutrition and human health.

DBM Lancet.png

The Lancet series on the double burden came out in late 2019 basically showing that there is a significant increase in low- and middle-income countries struggling with both undernutrition and overweight and obesity. The second and third papers on the etiology and actions to address the double burden stand out.

There is some controversy brewing in the nutrition world. But what else is new? JAMA published a pretty scathing article about conflicts of interest stemming from the series of articles that meat is actually not detrimental, or at least, neutral for health. JAMA argues that another group of scientists basically bullied the journal into retracting the articles, which did not happen. The JAMA called it “information terrorism.” What a mess.

A few of us from GAIN and Johns Hopkins University presented the Global Food Systems Dashboard at IFPRI last week. Check out the video and highlights here. The Dashboard brings together extant data from public and private sources to help decision-makers diagnose their food systems and identify all their levers of change and the ones that need to be pulled first.  Follow updates and announcements of the official launch on Twitter.

2019: The year of food and nutrition reports!

2019 was an interesting year in the food and nutrition space.

The Lancet had food on its mind this year with THREE Commissions/Series:

The EAT-Lancet Commission made the biggest “footprint” and spurred much debate and controversy, and pissed some people off. Good. That is exactly what it was meant to do. This along with the Syndemic made the Altmetrics top 100 papers of 2019. Cool.

The Global Burden of Disease finally published a solo paper on diets as a risk factor. That too made the Altmetrics top 100 list.

A slew of other reports on food, planet, and people came out this year. See the image below which doesn’t capture everything. They all pretty much say the same thing: We need to transform our food system if we want to save ourselves and the planet that we live on. We cannot disentangle the two. We depend on each other. It won’t be easy. The stakes are high and so are the challenges (like urban and population pressure). It will take significant, synergistic political will and investment. We are running out of time. That is the gist.

Screen Shot 2019-12-22 at 8.03.16 AM.png

The Global Nutrition Report and Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) movement churned on to keep the momentum, largely in the undernutrition space, moving.

We saw some neglected areas get more attention this year. Fish, plant-based burgers, older children and adolescents. The Nobel Prize went to two stellar development economists whose research has informed our thinking on poverty, and how we can reduce it. But of course, with a dose of caution.

The Committee on Food Security is in the process of crafting the Voluntary Guidelines on Food Systems and Nutrition. Regional consultations took place all year, and a draft is now out for review. If you are interested in providing written feedback on Draft One, you can do so by sending comments to cfs@fao.org by February 5, 2020. You can find all the info here.

This was the year of reports. Let’s make 2020 the year of action. We have a lot of evidence of what to do and how to do it. Many of us have written about it in ways in an attempt to get the attention of politicians. Now, we need to take what is written on paper and translate that into changes that matter for people. We need to vote for policymakers that care about these issues at the local level. Let’s push to make food, climate, and health a part of their campaigns, and give them the opportunity to take ownership of the issues.

We also need to think about politics outside our hometowns. We have seen some major shifts in the global political machinery of how we relate to each other and our willingness to participate as global citizens. Some of the heavy hitters, such as the U.S., will continue on its downward spiral into irrelevance, with the UK following close behind. But until they completely make themselves obsolete, their decisions, unfortunately, matter for the world, as we witnessed with the shoulder-shrugging at the COP 25 negotiations in Spain. Another year, lost.

But I am a cautious optimist. Well…let’s not push our luck here. Maybe more of a realist. We have the Tokyo 2020 moment to increase investments for nutrition (which are currently dismal). We will be half-way through the UN Decade of Action on Nutrition and 1/3 through the Sustainable Development Goals (not sure what this means, but hey). Derek Byerlee and I wrote about how far we have come and what achieving SDG2 means for the world. We have the Committee on Food Security hopefully approving the Voluntary Guidelines mentioned above. And we always have COP 26, to stir up a miracle to save the planet. These global moments are important, but not enough.

This is what I plan to do in 2020:

  1. I am going to take a look in my own backyard to make changes (and maybe stop flying around the world, thinking I am saving it).

  2. I will vote with my fork and the dire importance of the 2020 election in the U.S. cannot be understated.

  3. I will work more with people and less with paper – i.e. stop being involved in all these goddamn reports (that few read…).

The co-existence of obesity and hunger in America

This is a re-posting from The Bloomberg Opinion.

The U.S. is notorious for its weight problem. With just 5% of the world’s population, it’s home to 13% of the world’s overweight and obese people. Roughly two-thirds of adults in the U.S. are overweight or obese and, even more alarming, 38% of boys and girls ages 10 to 14 are.

On first glance, these numbers seem to reflect overabundance — Americans have more food than is good for them. But the problem is more complicated than that, and worse: Many of the same people who struggle with extra weight also regularly go to bed hungry. That may sound like an impossible contradiction, but dig deeper, and it quickly becomes clear how hunger and obesity are related. Both are often rooted in poverty.

Percentage of obese adults in the U.S. (obesity = body mass index of more than 30). Source: The State of Obesity

Percentage of obese adults in the U.S. (obesity = body mass index of more than 30). Source: The State of Obesity

Nearly 12% of American households are, by Agriculture Department standards, “food insecure” — meaning they have difficulty buying enough safe and nutritious food to meet their household needs. That amounts to roughly 40 million people, including some 540,000 children who experience very low food security. Food insecurity tends to be highest among Hispanic and black non-Hispanic families, and of course among unemployed and poor households.

Food insecure adults in the U.S. are 32% more likely than others to be obese — especially if they are women, one study found. Another revealed that children living in food insecure households have a greater-than-average tendency to be overweight or obese, and have poor eating habits. Other studies suggest that food insecure children also tend to display significant behavioral problems, disrupted social interactions, poor cognitive development and marginal school performance. These challenges, in turn, increase their risk of becoming obese adults.

Poverty and unemployment have driven the dual rise in food insecurity and obesity since the 1960s, especially in rural America. But many city dwellers subsisting with inadequate social services and support structures are also susceptible.

Food-insecure and low-income families face unique challenges that impair their ability to consume a healthful diet and maintain an ideal body weight. Their lifestyles tend to be sedentary because of their built environments, and their food tends to be served in large portions. The relatively inexpensive, calorie-dense food at their immediate disposal often lacks the nutrients needed for optimal health. As a result, though they may follow a nutritious diet for short periods, these are punctuated by cycles of financial and personal stress that lead to food deprivation, overeating, limited access to health care, reduced opportunities for physical activity and greater exposure to unhealthy food environments.

How can such cycles be minimized? It will take a concerted effort from many actors. The U.S. Congress, for one, should increase funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program — food stamps — on which 50 million American families depend. And it should shift agriculture subsidies away from their heavy focus on corn, soybeans and other Big Ag crops and toward the farming of fruits, vegetables, nuts and legumes.

Local food banks, an important resource for food insecure households, deserve the support of citizens and communities, and should be encouraged to provide more fresh foods and fewer processed foods high in salt, sugar and unhealthy fats.

Employers can help, too, by providing mental and physical wellness programs, as well as discounts and subsidies for physical activity programs. These investments are inherently worthwhile, because employees who exercise tend to have better concentration and work output.

Finally, hospitals and health clinics can help working households provide healthy meals by creating what are called prescription food programs: Hospitals provide a set amount of money for each patient household, or a prescription that can be redeemed for nutrient-rich foods, including fruits and vegetables, in participating nearby markets or grocery stores.

The goal for governments, health-care providers and community groups should not be limited to building more markets in neighborhoods that now lack for healthy groceries. It’s also essential to encourage more community gardens and farmers markets, subsidize healthy foods, promote nutritious food choices, and ban  junk food advertisements to children. Fighting against obesity and hunger is a matter of fighting for basic food security — even here in the U.S.

Food Bytes: October 6th edition

Food Bytes is a weekly blog post of “nibbles” of information on all things food and nutrition science, policy and culture.

Fall has arrived and with it, some interesting controversies in the food space.

Let’s start with sustainable diets. The New Yorker has a great read about the Impossible burger saving climate change. But according to the International Livestock Research Institute, “alt proteins” are not an answer for poorer countries. As Romeo Void sang, “never, say never.” Jonathan Safran Foer was a meat eater and went cold vegan. And he has another book about it.

Who is not going to save us all from climate change? Brazil. There is a lot of attention to the Brazilian Amazon forest fires. Here is a really good video summarizing the current situation of the Brazilian Amazon forest fires, much of it due to beef. Speaking of beef, there was a lot of controversy over a recent publication that it is okay for people to not limit their red meat consumption, following a slew of reports on its harmful impacts on health and the environment. NYT has been covering the controversy and now most recently, backlash with conflicts of interest. It turns out some were funded by the beef cattlemen association and ILSI, quoting NY Times here a “shadowy industry shaping food policy around the world.”

Paul Ferraro of Johns Hopkins has an article about how climate change solutions remain so elusive, particularly on the way we disseminate evidence. He argues: “We've always assumed the evidence must matter, but in reality we have almost a complete absence of evidence about the value of evidence…But then when it comes to building capacity, disseminating that information, we don't apply a scientific lens anymore. We just do it. We have no idea how to effectively use the science and the evidence we generate to move human behavior.” Tru dat.

Screen Shot 2019-10-06 at 2.13.11 PM.png

Maybe fish will save us all. A fantastic article in Nature on the importance of global fisheries in solving micronutrients. My favorite? Shellfish, particularly, clams. Did you know spaghetti vongole was from Naples? Certo!

The World Bank has summarized the current controversy of childhood stunting being equated to a measure of cognitive development. And on the other end of the spectrum of child growth, a new report estimates that the number of obese children globally is predicted to reach 250 million by 2030, up from 150 million now. Wow. Scary stuff. We often things of these child outcomes — stunting, wasting and overweight — as separate, but we should really stop doing that. This article calls for a unified approach. While I agree, it seems these days we are on a divided battlefield in nutrition and food, with no agreement on much of anything in sight. But, I am a pessimist!

Food Bytes: Sep 1 - 15 -- getting ready for climate summiting

Food Bytes is a weekly blog post of “nibbles” of information on all things food and nutrition science, policy and culture.

Get your climate crisis funk on ya’ll. Tear the roof off. Oh wait. Climate will do that for us.

We are gearing up for a couple of big weeks with the climate summit in New York. Lots will be happening for those of you who follow the UN General Assembly better known as UNGA. Politicians will emerge onto Gotham city carrying with them their massive carbon footprints to get there. Reports will be released from every organization who touches on climate change. Hotels will be overbooked and insanely expensive. New Yorkers will avoid the Murray Hill neighborhood like it a bad case of…Climate marches will be marched. Greta will be at the forefront. Excitement abounds! But seriously, this will be a decisive moment for the future of us and the planet. Let’s hope we see real action, real political commitment, and lots of investment. A few early highlights already:

  • Pastoralists are the hardest hit by climate change. Thomas Reuters Foundation did a great multi-media piece on Somaliland’s fight for their life against climate change.

  • The Food and Land Use Coalition (FOLU) will release a global report on transforming food and land use systems. They propose 10 critical transitions.

  • The Trump administration continues to totally ignore climate change. One example? The administration is limiting the scientific input to the United States’ 2020 dietary guidelines. The biggest thing they are ignoring are issues of sustainable diets. They will exclude the health effects of consuming red and processed meat, ultra-processed foods and sodium. Shocked? These shenanigans have been going on for decades. Marion Nestle wrote about the meddling of guidelines in Food Politics back in 2002. The scientific advisory committee has just squandered another five years to get these damn guidelines right.

  • But Trump can’t tell our army what to do. The US Army is doing their part. They have a “Go for Green” campaign in their cafeterias which is promoting healthy and sustainable diets. Guess what? The red color are foods that are bad. “Did you order the code red? YOUR DAMN RIGHT I DID!”

  • The Global Commission on Adaptation just released their report. By investing $1.8 trillion (yikes) in 5 areas from 2020 to 2030 could generate $7.1 trillion in total net benefits. The five areas? Early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, improved dryland agriculture, mangrove protection, and investments in making water resources more resilient.

  • A whole bunch of really smart people published an opinion piece on how to make food systems sustainable. They plead that improvements in environmental impact assessments of food production is needed.

  • And the Washington Post highlights that there are places in the world already hitting 2 degrees. Yikes. Uruguay being one.

And if you are just tired of living in the now, and yearn for those dreamy bygone days, Atlas Obscura takes us back to ancient times to learn where our food comes from. Check out this “preserved” bread from the ruins of Vesuvius. Oh wait. Don’t volcanos have something to do with climate change? Sigh…

Food Bytes: Aug 26 - Aug 31

Food Bytes is a weekly blog post of “nibbles” of information on all things food and nutrition science, policy and culture.

Have you ever wondered which cuisine the world craves? Turns out, Italy. Yeah, no shit Sherlock. Italy is the largest exporter of their cuisine followed by Japan, Turkey and Mexico — Órale! Who is the largest importer, meaning, their food just sucks? You guessed it Sherlock. America. F!@#%* yah! China and Brazil don’t seem so keen on their local cuisine either. They follow the U.S. on importing other country cuisines. Funny. Brazil’s food based dietary guideline boasts harnessing its local cuisine. We guess people just don’t read those pesky guidelines…

Dari Mozaffarian and Dan Glickman wrote a timely op-ed piece in the New York Times that diets are now the number one risk factor killing Americans, costing the U.S. health care system billions each year. They provide a range of solutions and signify that governments and food and beverage industries need to be held accountable. While unhealthy diets continue to kill so many, politicians completely ignore the issue. As America moves towards what will be a contentious, decisive election year, they suggest that “every candidate should have a food platform, and every [presidential] debate should explore these positions.” Not sure this rhetoric will be high on the Trump “make American great again, for real this time” re-election campaign because the “Potus” just ain’t really that into food. Unless you consider consuming fast food a gourmand type diet.

Another op-ed piece in the New York Times by Catherine Kling urges that producers who cause “nutrient pollution,” in the form of nitrogen and phosphorus coming from agriculture fertilizer and manure run-off, should be required to pay for the cleanup. She suggests that state government regulations should be enforced to ensure that farmers reduce nutrient pollution. Wonder how livestock ranchers feel about that? Gee, take a guess.

IFAD and Bioversity just put out a great guideline on supporting nutrition-sensitive neglected and underutilized species (NUS) and wild edibles (check out Figure 2 particularly). The guideline is led by the great Stefano Padulosi at Bioversity who has some deep experience working on NUS value chains in many parts of the world. He is also the “Rocket Man.” What are NUS you ask? Here is how they define it in the guideline:

Many are the synonyms which have been used since the mid-1980s to refer to NUS, including minor, under-used, under-exploited, under-developed, orphan, promising, lost, alternative, traditional, niche crops, crops of the future, future smart food. In reality, all these terms are often context-specific and loaded with heavy cultural meanings and not easily understood in the same way by everybody. The term “Neglected and Underutilized Species” might not be the ideal expression and may not be appealing to people.

There is so much focus these days on diet and the food system footprints on climate change. It is seriously having its moment. But in the back of our mind’s eye, we hark back to an article published in 2017 in Environmental Research Letters, that indicated that largest impact an individual can make to reduce their greenhouse gas footprint is to have one less child. Check out this graphic to the right. Powerful. This action is followed by living car free. Diet is further down the list of impacts. Food for thought…

Interestingly, they didn’t model reducing food waste by individuals. The World Resources Institute (WRI) has just released a global action agenda on reducing food loss and waste by 2030. It is a really practical guide to setting targets, honing in on who should take action and what scalable interventions are available. Everything WRI puts out is pretty stellar and this is another data rich, practical guide to tackle one of the most important issues of the food system.

What if all Americans ate less meat? Not necessarily eliminating meat completely, but just much less? By the way, American are already slowly and steadily decreasing their beef consumption since the 1980s. In the Nature journal Scientific Reports, scientists tested this idea. By replacing 25% meat with plant alternatives dominated (strangely) by soy, green pepper, squash, buckwheat, and asparagus, Americans can eliminate pastureland use while saving 35–50% of their diet related needs for cropland and 330 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions each year, but increase their diet related irrigation needs by 15%.

These advertisements on the left for PETA Vegan guides are all over DC (note the elephant in the background just to remind you that yes, DC is the capitol of the U.S. and the district lives and breathes politics. You can’t get away from it. It will smother, suffocate and slowly destroy you). Where were we? Oh yeah. We picked up the guide and thumbed through it. Some of the recipes didn’t look so tantalizing, and much of what was recommended wasn’t all that healthy. There were lots of photos of faux meat mimicking fried chicken fingers, hotdogs, and meatballs doused in sticky sauce, as well as lots of cakes. Is it possible to promote sustainable, healthy, and animal cruelty free vegan diets for those who choose to go that route PETA? That can’t be too hard can it? While it was an A for effort, maybe version 2 of the guide will feature more healthy foods and less overly processed, junk food.

In other news, with Uber Eats and other gig economy food deliveries on the rise, so is the toll on the drivers delivering food. They are risking their lives in places like South Africa. Tragic. And just to deliver the ultimate convenience to our dinner table.

Venezuela. Talk about a free fall into despair and chaos. Because of the turmoil, food security and the deeper issues of consistent insecurity have taken a big hit. Venezuelans lost an average of twenty-four pounds in body weight. Nine out of ten live in poverty. Roughly one in ten have left the country.

A paper just published in the Lancet hits right at the heart of the trade war between the U.S. and China. The authors feel that it is time to reshape trade policies towards those that favor sustainable food and nutrition systems. They argue there are three starting points for public health actors to take up this agenda.

  1. Recognize the fundamental and front-line nature of trade policy as both a barrier and potential catalyst for health.

  2. Engage more effectively and with the right stakeholders to push for policy space within trade and investment agreements.

  3. Reach beyond trade to promote a development discourse that makes explicit the nutrition imperative — nutrition is crucial to achieving most of the Sustainable Development Goals.

The Food Archive holds a special place in its heart for special focus issues that scientific journals put out. That is, when journals hone in on a hot topic and publish a complementary set of articles on the topic to show different facets and perspectives on the topic.

Here are some recent highlights:

In the last food bytes post, the hard to watch unfold Brazilian Amazon fires were highlighted. This piece highlights that forest fires are happening all over the world, many in biodiverse hotspots, making climate change all that much worse. Very sad not only for forests but for those who live among and depend on them. The map on the right shows fires over the last year. Look at southwest Africa and Southern Africa. Look at Madagascar (think lemurs…) and Southeast Asia. Wah!!

One place prone to massive forest fires (the 2018 fires were the most devastating in the state’s history) is California but every day it finds a way to rub its beauty in our face. Geez, okay Cali, you win.

Speaking of California, and to keep the whole Woodstock vibe going, let’s just end with a little Joni Mitchell, because she sings about omelets and stews and well, because this has to be one of the best albums ever recorded. Click below to hear her beautiful song, California.

Oh the rogue, the red red rogue
He cooked good omelets and stews
And I might have stayed on with him there
But my heart cried out for you, California
Oh California, I'm coming home
Oh make me feel good rock'n roll band
I'm your biggest fan
California, I'm coming home

— Joni Mitchell

 

 

Food Bytes: July 21 - Aug 25

Food Bytes is a weekly blog post of “nibbles” of information on all things food and nutrition science, policy and culture.

Took a bit longer to get up the next Food Bytes entry due to summer holidays. So here it goes.

Summer is going out with a roar. The Inter-Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produced their outstanding report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. Lots of media coverage followed. Diet recommendations were made (reducing beef, taking on a more flexitarian diet etc). If we want to live in this changed climate, we need to adapt. The saber-toothed tiger had a less flexitarian diet and we know what happened to them…

Speaking of adapting, scientists found a “stature gene” among Central African hunter gatherers, also known as pygmies. This short gene gave them an advantage in Africa’s hot, humid rainforests. I was really hoping this gene hopped across the Atlantic to Italians, or even more so, short Italian American women living in DC to help explain my enduring squat-ness, but alas, no such luck. While on the topic of luck, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists, you should also stay away from cereal that has corn as the main ingredient if you want to have an environmentally friendly diet. So better forget about your Froot Loops and Trix and reach instead for your Lucky Charms.

Farmgate value of global vegetable production by income groups of countries, average 2012–2013, current US dollars (Source: Schreinemachers et al 2019 GFS Journal)

Let’s continue with the climate onslaught shall we? This article talks about the beginning of the end of the livestock industry. But is that really so? Don’t underestimate the chicken man. And do you know how much of a carbon footprint you consume with your diet? BBC provides a calculator - do the math and you will quickly be blanketed in a quilt of guilt. It ain’t just beef that you gotta worry about…

Sam Myers of Harvard published a great piece in the WaPo on how increased CO2 in the atmosphere will “zap” nutrients from key crops. He argues that 175 million people could become zinc-deficient, 122 million would not be able to get protein, and 0.5 billion would have iron-deficiency-related disease. So now we need to worry not only about getting enough food to feed 10 billion, but the quality of those foods in fulfilling our nutrient needs. And the declines in nutritional quality are happening in real time. A study examining 43 “garden” crops in the U.S. found declines of 6 nutrients - protein, calcium, iron, phosphorous, riboflavin and vitamin C - since 1950. The food supply already can’t keep up. Mario Herrero and colleagues found that our current food supply does not produce enough fruits and vegetables, and in the course of the next 30 years, that supply will worsen. If everyone were to follow the WHO recommendation of 400 g/person/day of fruits and vegetables, 1.9 billion people would not have the access to these foods – the food supply just cannot keep up.

But a recent article in the Global Food Security Journal argues that vegetables hold a lot of economic power. Yeah sure. That is, if we can produce them. And then people want to eat them. They suggest that governments will need to increase their investment in farm productivity including improved varieties, alternatives to chemical pesticides, and the use of protected cultivation. There is also a need for better post-harvest storage of veggies, food safety and market opportunities. To tap the nutritional power of vegetables, consumers need to know how vegetables contribute to health, be able to afford them, or be able to grow them themselves. God speed to those New Yorkers living in 300 square feet of space with no windows and definitely, no outdoor space.

The recent paper by Eker and colleagues, published in Nature Sustainability, adds to the sustainable diet literature and evidence base, examining how consumer diet shifts can contribute to mitigation of climate change. Utilizing scenario assessments, the authors model the impacts of different compositional and behavioral dietary shifts among the global population on environmental footprints. Compositional dietary shifts included average meat consumption, flexitarian (more plant-based), vegetarian, and vegan dietary patterns. As other studies have shown, changes in diet composition towards more plant-based diets, have implications on the environment. However, more significant shifts, by a large swatch of the world’s population, towards vegetarianism would need to occur to see impacts on greenhouse gases and other environmental measures (such as land use). The paper is unique in that it models the behavioral dietary shifts among consumers and their impacts. The authors found that younger populations (ages 15-45) respond to social norm behaviors, that is, as the world moves towards more vegetarian type diets, the change towards those diets is more rapid.

They argue that the values a society holds among peer groups can outweigh the influence of scientific facts. This was evident in that behavior shifts in response to health or climate risks were not as significant as motivators of behavior change. Secondary education attainment (a predominant proportion of the world’s population) and self efficacy and identity among women were also important motivators of dietary behavioral change. This study argues that for us, as individuals to make an impact on the environment through our diets, significant shifts need to be made by a large segment of the world’s population. These shifts require a movement towards a vegetarian type diet to reap both environmental and health benefits. Much of this change would happen through peer influence (think social media), through women’s agency, and through those with a secondary school education. The change, would need to happen on a grand, transformative level as called for by the EAT-Lancet Commission report in early January 2019.

Fires in the Brazilian Amazon. Source: NYTIMES

Foreign Policy well articulates the findings from the EAT Lancet and the IPCC report here and argue that the global food crisis is here. Now. Live. I also was on the Bloomberg Daybreak America’s show to discuss the impacts of the food system and diets on climate change. Check out the show here (segment starts at 1:22:50). Scientists have been forecasting their warnings for 40 years - they were right and no one listened. Maybe people (and governments) will start paying more attention and take some serious action. The NOAA show that July 2019 was the hottest month on record since they started recording temperatures. Speaking of heat, the Brazilian amazon fires are getting lots of attention right now. The NY Times shows a time scale of problem. It should be noted that these human induced fires are mainly done to prepare agriculture lands. And they occur every year, around the same time in the Amazon. The article makes three points on why these fires are different. (1) There were 35 percent more fires so far this year than in the average of the last eight years. (2) There has been a rise in deforestation in recent years, after a long period of decline. (3) While a large majority of the fires were on land that had already been cleared of forests many others are burning with particular intensity that are “deforestation fires.”

While we are discussing trees, it seems a banana fungus, known as “Fusarium wilt tropical race 4 (TR4)” has been devastating plantations in Asia and now the Americas. It is supposedly impossible to eradicate and can live in soil for 30 years. The economic upheaval cannot be overstated. Speaking of loss, a study out of Santa Clara University found that one-third of edible produce (like tomatoes, sweet corn, artichokes, watermelon, cabbage, strawberries and kale) remains unharvested in the fields. Reasons? Field/harvest stability, weather, pests and plant diseases, labor availability, market prices, and buyer specifications for how produce should look and feel like.

By the time we got to Woodstock…

I just can’t keep up with all the latest food trends. Did you know McDonalds has jumped on the podcast bandwagon? Yeehaw. Virtual restaurants are on the rise, meaning that they are digital-only establishments that don’t need a dining room or waiters. They rely on people ordering their food from apps. But kickin it back to ol’ school, this article gives ode to the Waffle House, started in 1955 in Avondale Estates Georgia. You just can’t replicate that with an app. Oh, how I reminisce of those bygone days. Can you believe Woodstock happened 50 years ago? I just bought this book: Hippie Food: How Back-to-the-Landers, Longhairs, and Revolutionaries Changed the Way We Eat by Jonathan Kauffman. Bring on the tempeh. Seems all things hippie are back in style. Keep an eye out for a blog dedicated to 1968-1969 and how it influenced our food ways.

Delving further back into history, the New York Times has an excellent piece on the “barbaric history of sugar” that fueled slavery in the United States. By the mid-19th century, the U.S. had 125,000 slaves working on sugar plantations! Fast forward to today, we are now trying to figure out how to reduce, remove or tax this “white gold” in the food supply. Forty countries and 7 cities have a sugar tax. The Economist highlights a study showing how to optimize sugar taxes without regressive effects. They suggest that: “In the real world, if taxes in one place get too high shoppers will arbitrage the rules by traveling to buy soft drinks elsewhere. Taking this into account they reckon that the optimal rate for cities is 0.5 cents, although a more efficient system would be a state or national tax to control America’s sugar rush.”

Impact of climate change on crops, water and income in Timor-Leste. Source: Bonis-Profumo et al 2019.

Here is just a few cool papers, reports and books that came out in the last few weeks:

  • Association Between Plant-Based Dietary Patterns and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. There is a strong inverse dose response association between plant-based diets and risk of type 2 diabetes This association was strengthened when healthy plant-based foods, such as fruits, vegetables, whole grains, legumes, and nuts.

  • Soft condensed matter physics of foods and macronutrients. This article discusses the importance of physics in understanding the texture, taste, and composition of foods. It is an atom-colliding article of food science and matter physics. Get your genius on.

  • Ravaged landscapes and climate vulnerability: The challenge in achieving food security and nutrition in post-conflict Timor-Leste. This article focuses on the fascinating Timor-Leste - an agrarian society that won independence in 2002 and is struggling to achieve food security and reduce undernutrition as the country modernizes. The economy depends on fossil fuel revenues and oil reserves are dwindling. A review of climate, agricultural, and nutrition data reveals high weather vulnerability, low agricultural productivity, and slow dietary and nutritional progress. But solutions exist. Agricultural sector actions can make important contributions to poverty reduction, food security, dietary diversity, micronutrient sufficiency, and overall nutrition. Agriculture can be made to be more nutrition- and gender-sensitive with a focus on mixed farming systems, biodiversity, climate-smart practices, and access to inputs, training, and technologies for farmers to enable sustainable and healthy rural livelihoods. Ultimately, productivity levels must improve to support the availability of sufficient and nutritious foods.

  • Gene-environment interplay: what do our genes say about dietary choices? Those of us who work in public health often forget about epigenetics and the way our genes play out in our diets and health status. The authors say: “Diet is not just dictated by guidelines and individual choices, but also by availability and accessibility. Therefore, future studies that investigate the relationship of gene expression and a healthy diet in individuals exposed to a similar environmental milieu—for example, in accessibility, inducements, and the socioeconomic construct—are needed to understand the gene–environment interplay at the community level. These results can leverage genetic expression analyses to provide early biological footprints of an unhealthy diet environment, in order to facilitate the investigation of social factors that influence prevalences and outcomes of disease processes, such as food deserts and food swamps.”

  • Trends and Correlates of Overweight among Pre-School Age Children, Adolescent Girls, and Adult Women in South Asia: An Analysis of Data from Twelve National Surveys in Six Countries over Twenty Years. The researchers found that overweight children had significantly higher odds of having an overweight mother and were more likely to come from wealthier households, live in urban areas, and have more education.

  • Modernization of African Food Retailing and (Un)healthy Food Consumption. In Zambia, two-thirds of the households use modern and traditional retailers simultaneously, but richer households are more likely than poorer ones to use supermarkets and hypermarkets. Use of modern retailers is positively associated with higher consumption of ultra-processed foods, after also controlling for income and other socioeconomic factors. However, the use of traditional stores and kiosks is also positively associated with the consumption of ultra-processed foods, suggesting that modern retailers are not the only drivers of dietary transitions. Interesting!

  • The SDG of zero hunger 75 years on: Turning full circle on agriculture and nutrition. In this paper, Derek Byerlee and I look back to the pioneering 1943 UN Conference on Food and Agriculture in Hot Springs, Virginia where the first international commitment to ending hunger was made. Despite these good intentions, however, the agricultural and nutrition communities largely went their separate ways for the next 50 years. Following through on the conference’s balanced approach of “more and better food” would have resulted in better nutrition for all. Today, the SDGs have once again put nutrition and agriculture together at center stage. Despite some important gaps in knowledge, financing, and implementation capacity, we are finally in a better position to shape food systems in a way that ends hunger and all forms of malnutrition.

  • Technical Brief: Economic Evaluations of Multi-sectoral Actions for Health and Nutrition. This is a fantastic brief by the AHN Academy. This is a fantastic brief by the AHN Academy to “created to advance knowledge and scientific understanding among the global research community of economic evaluation methods and metrics related to costs and benefits of agriculture, food and livelihood strategies for nutrition and health.” They examine different types of economic evaluations and move towards standardizing a set of metrics to economically assess nutrition.

  • The Political Economy of Food. Jody Harris and colleagues at IDS just published this IDS Bulletin that examines the issues of power across food systems. It looks at the various active players, relationships, activities, and institutions that play a major role in shaping food systems and power inequities. This was a much needed publication and I plan to use it in my class on food policy.